Thanks to the consumer confidence level, Black Friday started hitting the news even before the sales commenced, though for a different reason. The eagerness with which shoppers lined from midnight to take a slice of their share was obvious and much to the dislike of the retailers shopping began violently at least in the initial hours of shopping.
The Black Friday sales numbers echoed in the Asian and European markets too on Monday. For more than a week, one or the other negative news battered the markets badly. It was but natural that market men are pining for favorable news that could lift the sentiments. Strong Black Friday sales was the much-needed vitamin for the market to come from the slumber. True to the expectations, Black Friday sales continued its top-shopping day consecutively for the seventh year till 2010. The current year position will be known only after the seasonal sales are over.
The sales figures assumed significance in the wake of the U.S.'s second estimate of third quarter GDP recording 2 % rise at an annual rate, lower than its advance estimate of 2.5%. This has obviously ringed alarm bells of a possible recession looming large. But the latest consumer spending halted any such opinion at least for the short term.
NRF Take
The National Retail Federation's (NRF) survey of Black Friday sales touched a record $52.4 billion, representing 16% increase over the previous year Black Friday sales. The traffic too witnessed a 6.6% upside to 226 million shoppers and websites from 212 million in the year-ago period. Significantly, the average spent of shopper also grew 9% to $398.62 from ! $365.34, while average spending through the web increased 37.8% to $150.53 over last year. Online shoppers numbered 28.7 million, significantly higher than 22.2 million in the previous year.As much as 86.3 million people thronged the shops and online stores to shop their favorites.
Commenting on the Black Friday sales, NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said, "Stuffed to the brim from their holiday meals and eager to shop, more consumers than ever turned out for retailers' Black Friday promotions, a promising sign for the economic recovery." Though the holiday season is far from over, the turnout and value growth motivate the retailers to build on the momentum seen so far.
Clothing and clothing accessories dominated the buyers wish list with 51.4% preferring them followed by electronics and computer-related accessories that recorded 39.4% of shoppers fancying them.
Cyber Monday Outlook
The sales trend over the years has always been on the upside only. Even during the worst year of 2008 too, Cyber Monday shoppers witnessed a consistent rise. As much as 106.9 million visitors were recorded in 2010 for Cyber Monday sales. In 2011, about 122 million people are expected to shop on Cyber Monday going by the survey of Shop.org. The survey also points out that eight out of ten retailers are likely to have unique promotional schemes to attract online shoppers.Historically Speaking
The retail companies generate 25% - 40% of their annual sales from holiday season sales. However, the last fifteen years witnessed a continuous fall in share of yearly sales. NRF discloses that this is partly due to consumers preferring their holiday shopping in October itself or redeem their gift cards in January or later. Therefore, holiday season sales are viewed closely to gauge the consumers pulse.Except for two years, i.e. in 2008 and 2009, the retails sales have been registering a growth. These two years saw retail sales nose-diving 4.4% and 0.4% respectively following the financial turmoil! inflict ed recession.
Currently, NRF is estimating holiday sales to witness 2.8% growth to $465.5 billion for 2011 holiday season sales from 2010's 5.2% upside. Last year results were significant as it came on the back of 0.4% downside recorded in 2009. The last ten years witnessed an average holiday sales of 2.6% per year.
