Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Buy And Hold Isn’t Dead, Just Misunderstood

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Buy And Hold Isn’t Dead, Just Misunderstood
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Every once in a while, a bunch of doomsayers pop up proclaiming the demise of buy and hold. This tends to happen more often during times of heavy volatility and uncertainty in the market, such as over the past few months. Some of these folks like to follow up with testaments to the superiority of whizbang new investment strategies, with names like “buy and watch” or “buy and monitor.” The problem isn’t that they’re wrong – on the contrary, they’re absolutely right. The problem is that the concept of “buy and hold” that they’re attacking is nothing more than a strawman. It’s easy to win when you’re dueling a scarecrow, because straw doesn’t fight back.

Let’s look at some articles here on SA that have been published recently: Investors Should Not Be Complacent About Dividend Champions, by James Kostohryz, and Why Picking A Stock To Hold Forever Is Folly: The Apple/Cisco Case, by Roger Nusbaum. First, let me say that Mr. Kostohryz and Mr. Nusbaum are both excellent writers who provide many articles of value to the investment community. I read both of them regularly and will continue to do so. However, both of the articles cited above pick on a premise that was never true to begin with: that the buy-and-hold investment style encourages investors to hang on to their stocks ad infinitum after they’ve bought them, without paying any attention to how the underlying businesses are doing.

The first and most important rule of buy-and-hold is to know your investments. That includes knowing when to get out. It’s very possible for traditional buy-and-hold investors who follow the school of long-term value investing to dump a stock one quarter after they purchased it. Their investment thesis may have been wrong. The fundamentals of the company may have changed. Unforeseen challenges to the business may have materialized. Such an action doesn’t diminish the validity of their strategy.

The “hold” of buy-and-hold refers to intent, not a guaranteed outcome. In this way, buy-and-hold investing is kind of like marriage. When we marry, most of us intend and hope to stay hitched for good. When long term investors buy a stock, we hope that the company will continue to grow and remain competitive forever. We select the partner/companies that have the best chance of making that hope a reality.

Of course, a lot of the time it doesn’t turn out that way. When you find out that the person you married is not who you thought they were, sometimes the best thing to do is to walk away. When you find out that the business you bought is no longer as strong a competitor as it once was, it may be time to cash in your chips and move to another table.

A character in a great movie once said, “On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.” The same is true of businesses. Of the original Dow stocks, only General Electric (GE) remains, and the financial crisis was a pretty close call for GE. Competitive destruction is one of the ugliest, but most fundamental forces of free market capitalism. It doesn’t matter how good you are, eventually someone better is going to come along to pick a fight with you, and then it’s game over. Nothing immunizes a company from the omnipresent threat of competitive destruction. Not a fat dividend, not a wide moat, not a fortress balance sheet. Eventually, all companies must die.

Buy-and-hold investors understand this, which is why the first principle of buy-and-hold is what it is. The more intimately familiar you are with a company’s operations, prospects, and financial health, the more likely it is that you’ll recognize when it’s time to take your money off the table. No one who actively practices buy-and-hold investing is under the delusion that they must hold on to their stocks forever no matter what happens. Some investors do a portfolio check-up more often than others, but the only investment vehicles that you can just dump money into and then forget about are index funds.

The only reason this is true is because index funds aren’t really completely passive. Every stock in an index was added there by a person, and stocks get removed when they no longer fit the profile of the index. When you buy an index ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) or the iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA), you’re not holding on to your investments forever either, because the indexes get reshuffled every so often: new companies get added in, faltering companies get taken out. Index investors can afford to be less vigilant because they have the company behind the index acting as their portfolio manager. Investors who choose to pick their own stocks benefit from no such proxy.

If you’re not the kind of investor who has the time to stay on top of his portfolio 24/7, there are a lot of companies out there that operate under safeguards that make it less necessary to keep tabs on them all the time. Alcoa (AA) plies its trade in a capital intensive industry that poses formidable barriers to entry. Cisco (CSCO) has a huge war chest stuffed with cash, which helps to buffer against economic assault (though a technology stock is never really a safe investment no matter its balance sheet). Ford (F) benefits from great leadership that steered it through a market downturn that swallowed up most of its competitors. The more capable your managers are, the less risk you assume with a hands off approach to ownership. Finally, Intel (INTC) offers an unrivaled dividend yield compared to its industry peers that continues to grow, which means that by the time cracks begin to appear in the company’s foundation, investors may have already made their money back and more through dividends alone.

These companies may have an edge over their competitors in terms of stability, but there’s no such thing as a safe investment, only safer. You can call it buy-and-hold, buy-and-watch, buy-and-monitor, or whatever new catchphrase the news streams serve up, but in the end, it amounts to the same thing: buying great companies at a reasonable price, and letting them go when they’re no longer great companies at a reasonable price.

Times may change, but the fundamental ideas of value investing, of buy-and-hold investing will continue to remain relevant so long as people in society continue to make money by selling their stuff to other people.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in F over the 2next 72 hours.

Saturday, November 5, 2011

Top Oil Stocks 2011/2012 – Top Oil Stocks to Buy 2011/2012

Oil Stocks to Buy 2011/2012- 2011/2012 Oil Stocks

Below is a list of my latest oil stock picks for 2011/2012. These 2011/2012 Oil Stock Picks are my favor stocks to buy and some of the stocks I will be trading personally. Last year, one of my top oil stock picks was Brigham Exploration (BEXP). BEXP stock went from $15 to $27 from July to December of 2010 and was one of my biggest stock gainers of the year. I feel 2011 will be a good year for stocks and the overall stock market. Oil in 2011 should hit $110-$120 which would make the oil stocks rally even higher.

Key Areas of Oil Exploration in 2011 – Eagle Ford Shale – Niobrara Shale – Bakken Shale – Permian Basin – Oil Discoveries are still going on in these fields and in 2011, more Oil Discoveries will be made. Keep an eye on the Chainman Shale – Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) mentioned in late 2010 that they are drilling for oil in the Chainman Shale. We also have Venoco (VQ) drilling the Monterey Shale in California. With that, here is a list of my best oil stock picks for 2011

#1 Top Oil Stock Pick 2011/2012 – Oil Stocks – Hyperdynamics Corporation (HDY) – While Hyperdynamics (HDY) is my top stock pick of 2010, it is a risky one. The company has no revenues and does not make any money but could be sitting on a very large pool of oil off the coast of Africa. Drilling for oil is expected to begin in December 2011. Hyperdynamics was headed into a downward spiral over the past couple years but changed the management team in 2010 who vowed to take the company in a new direction. Hyperdynamics has a very large prospective leased area off the coast of the Republic of Guinea. In November 2010, Hyperdynamics raised $30 million in a private placement from financial giant Blackrock (BLK) which will help in preperation costs to drill for oil in late 2011. Hyperdynamics did a few surveys and believe they could be sitting on billions of barrels of oil.

As for HDY stock in 2011, It is my top stock to buy and my best trading idea. I have been trading HDY since the stock was $1.60 in August 2010 and gave it a price target of $4 – $6 for 2011. HDY hit a high of $3.63 in October 2010 and continues to trade around $3.00 as we head into 2011. If everything goes as planned and the company does infact sit on top of a large oil pool, we could be looking at a $8-$10 stock by year end 2011 in my opinion. I gave it a target of $4 – $6 when the stock was hitting $2.60 just to be on the conservative side. Of coarse, if Hyperdynamics announces any delays or lesser oil reserves, all bets are off. Pullbacks below $2.50 should be a great buy if you are looking for an entry point. I currently own HDY stock for the long term and will buy more stock on pullbacks. If you have any questions or feel like discussing HDY stock, visit my HDY message forum thread.

#2 Top Oil Stock Pick for 2011 - Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) – Kodiak Oil & Gas was another huge stock gainer for me at the end of 2010. I bought KOG stock at $4.30 in mid November 2010 and sold between $5.00-$5.70 a month later. KOG went on to hit $6.69 a few weeks later. Kodiak Oil in Gas recently aquired additional acreage in the Bakken Shale. This acreage is in some of the best zones in the Bakken which includes the Three Forks Oil zone. When I originally bought KOG at $4.30, I placed a personal target of $8-$10 on it for 2011. I am sticking with this and feel the stock could even hit $12. A lot will depend on what oil does but ultimately the stock is going a lot higher. While I don’t own KOG right now, I plan to buy the stock on any major correction.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

FIFO LIFO Inventory Valuation Methods

March 27th, 2011 by Jae Jun

Print Friendly Print Get a PDF version of this webpage PDF Aggressive and Conservative Accounting SeriesFor previous articles in the series, click on the links below.

Aggressive and Conservative Accounting PoliciesHow to Detect Aggressive Revenue Recognition PolicyInventory Valuation Methods in AccountingInventory can make up a large amount of the assets on the balance sheet and so knowing how to analyze the inventory, and the method used by management is crucial.

To put it in the most basic form, inventory is what you have in stock. If you expand on this definition to look at what is involved on the other side of the scale to get the ending inventory amount, the equation for inventory is

Beginning Inventory + Net Purchases – Cost of Goods Sold = Ending Inventory

In words, your beginning inventory along with your purchases and then subtracting what you have sold, results in ending inventory.

But this is where it gets tricky with GAAP rules. Depending on the inventory valuation  method used by the company, the COGS can vary considerably which ultimately affects the ending inventory.

Sadly, it is not as easy as counting what is left on the shelf at the end of the day to get the ending inventory value.

Three inventory valuation methods are used in the US.

1. Average cost method

2. First In First Out (FIFO) method

3. Last in First Out (LIFO) method

Average Cost MethodTo put it real bluntly, the average cost method is rarely used. This method does not offer any real convenience or added accuracy.

The equation for average cost method is as follows.

Average Cost = (Total Quantity of Inventory Units) / (Total Quantity of Units)

where

Cost of Goods Sold = (Average Unit Cost) x (Number of Units Sold)

For example if 1,000 toys are produced on Monday at a cost of $1 and then on Tuesday another 1,000 toys are manufactured at a price of $1.05, the average cost method would value the inventory at $1.025 a piece.

FIFO MethodAs mentioned previously on aggressive and conservative accounting policies, the FIFO method of valuing inventory is considered to be the aggressive method.

FIFO works like how you maintain your fridge at home. After you have bought some groceries, you tend to place what you just bought at the back of the fridge in order to finish off the older food before it spoils.

In other words, under FIFO, the oldest goods are sold first and the newest goods are sold last.

As a formula it would look like this

Unit Cost per batch = (Cost/Quantity) for each batch

where

Cost of Goods Sold = (Unit Cost x Quantity) for each batch

Using the toy example above, if 1,000 toys were then sold on Wednesday, the COGS would be $1 per unit. The remaining inventory on the balance sheet would then be worth $1.05 each.

LIFO MethodLIFO is the opposite of FIFO. Instead of the oldest inventory being considered as sold first, the newest product is sold first. While the factory analogy works for the FIFO, consider a bakery. By lunch or evening, the bread baked from the morning will not sell as well as the fresh ones from the afternoon batch.

This means that cost of the latest inventory now becomes the COGS with the cost of the oldest inventory being assigned to the inventory value on the balance sheet.

The equation is essentially the same as FIFO since both are calculated based on batches of unit sold.

Unit Cost per batch = (Cost/Quantity) for each batch

where

Cost of Goods Sold = (Unit Cost x Quantity) for each batch

Using the toy example, the 1,000 units sold on Wednesday would have a COGS of $1.05 per unit, with the remaining 1,000 toys being valued at $1 each.

How Inventory Valuation Affects Profits and AssetsAs you can see from above, despite ending with the same 1,000 toys, FIFO assigns the inventory value to be $1,050 compared to the LIFO $1,000.

But another point is that the method of inventory valuation does not just affect the balance sheet. Gross profit also varies considerably. How?

Gross Profit = Sales – COGS

COGS differ under FIFO and LIFO, and if your COGS is low, then that means gross profit will increase.

The table below sums up how each of the three inventory valuations vary.


Things to Think About Regarding InventoryAssuming that the world is in a vacuum, the table above illustrates that FIFO results in the biggest gross profit as well as the highest ending inventory value. This is a reason why FIFO is the method of choice for most companies.

Should a company change its accounting policies to switch from LIFO to FIFO, watch out, as management is more focused on trying to increase earnings instead of improving their operations.

If the toy manufacturer above was using the LIFO method and reported $350 in gross profit but then decided to change to FIFO resulting in a restated $500 gross profit, the accounting change alone has increased gross profit by 42.8%!

Also consider this. FIFO increases net income which would in turn increase taxes, but as I stated previously, most public companies are more concerned with showing an increase in earnings.

On the other hand, LIFO is not a good indicator of ending inventory as the remaining inventory could be extremely old and is likely to understate the inventory at today’s prices.

In the end, valuation is more art than science and you can probably see that after following this.

The best way to decide whether a company is being aggressive with inventory valuation is to use common sense and to check out the competitors in the industry. If everyone else is using the LIFO method and company X is the only one using FIFO, then you know you have found a red flag.

For such a simple component of the financial statement, there is quite a lot to think about.

You can also learn more about inventory analysis for investors by following the link.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Aggressive Growth Stock: Caliper Life Sciences

Caliper Life Sciences (CALP: 6.36 0.00 0.00%) recently announced preliminary financial results that breathed some life into the stock. Estimates are moving higher as a result.

CALP currently has a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) and continues to expand into new markets.

Company Description

Caliper Life Sciences develops advanced instruments and outsourcing services for pharmaceutical, biotech and other research institutions and companies.

Positive Announcement

On Jan 13 Caliper released preliminary fourth-quarter results that made investors quite happy. Revenue came in at $36 million, which brings the full-year mark to $124 million. That is a 10% organic growth rate.

Caliper's gross margin expanded by over 800 bps, allowing them to surpass goals for 2010. The company raised its 2011 guidance and is now expecting the top line to improve 12-20%.

Estimates Move Higher

Both analysts polled by Zacks raised their full-year estimates for this year on the news. Caliper is expected to break even this year; up from a 9-cent loss they were expecting 3 months ago.

Next year's forecasts are averaging 3 cents, up from a 2-cent loss. While the earnings figures are not impressive on the surface, the upward momentum is encouraging. In 2009 Caliper lose 12 cents.

M&A Activity

On Dec 21 Caliper said it completed a previously announce deal to acquire Cambridge Research & Instrumentation, Inc for $20 million in cash, assumed debt and common stock. The move will help Caliper break into the tissue imaging and digital pathology market.

The Chart

The recent news and raised guidance gave shares of CALP a jolt. There is a level of resistance here, but given the upward estimate revisions there is a good chance that we see a new high soon.

Caliper Life Sciences - ticker CALP > </P> Bill Wilton is the Aggressive Growth Stock Strategist for Zacks.com. He is also the Editor in charge of the market-beating Zacks Small Cap Trader service<BR></P>
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Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Japan is not a Bargain

March 17th, 2011 by Jae Jun

Print Friendly Print Get a PDF version of this webpage PDF US Listed Japan ETF’s Not as Cheap as You ThinkInvesting in Japan has been on my mind the past week, but so has the crowd. What this means is that American investors have not been fleeing.

A quick way to judge this is to simply compare the drop of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) Index compared to the ETF’s that trade on the US exchange.

The first three days following the disaster, the TSE fell 22%. Compare this to the iShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ) which fell around 12%. Small cap Japanese ETF’s JSC, SCJ and DFJ fell roughly 14% a piece.

This is a big disparity and shows that the crowd is very willing to pick up shares in Japan.

Despite the 14% fall, the current prices really only go back to Dec 2010 levels which is not cheap to begin with. Add the currency risk into current prices, and Japan is not the bargain you think.

Are Japanese Stocks Cheap for US Investors?As a quick example, assume that Panasonic (PC), at the 52 week high price of $16, is fairly valued. The point of this exercise will be to see whether current prices reflect value for US investors. I am not able to purchase stocks off the TSE and my assumption is that most people cannot as well.

Geoff Gannon made a great point about currency risk and how the overvalued Yen affects an investment.

How?

Currently, 1 USD will get you 80 Yen but by looking at the conversion rate over the past 2 years, it looks like the appropriate rate should be 1 USD for 95 Yen.

Geoff took the normal rate to be 1 USD : 109 Yen, so my value is even more conservative.

Using the 95 Yen value, the Yen at the moment is 19% overvalued. In other words, Japanese stocks could lose 15% of its value simply based on currency conversion alone.

Apply this 15% drop to Panasonic and the theoretical fair value comes out to $13.60. At the current price of $12, the potential upside for Panasonic is 13%. Not the best opportunity you may have been thinking about.

If you include a 25% margin of safety, since EVERY investment requires a margin of safety, then the buy price is $10 which Panasonic does not satisfy.

Japan has Historically been CheapYou could argue that the original fair value of $16 for Panasonic is much to low to begin with. If I perform the above calculation in reverse, the fair value of Panasonic would have to be $20 for the current price to offer value.

The problem however, is that Japan has always been cheap. If you believe that Japan is cheap now, then you should have believed that Japan was cheap before the earthquake.

If  you did not have any positions in Japan before the disaster, it just means that you had better places to put your money. Put another way, it wasn’t that cheap.

Consider that when deciding whether your next Japanese stock is a value trap or opportunity of a lifetime.

Don’t let me discourage you though. I am looking through a list of Japanese ADR stocks hoping to find a no brainer.

Since I can not purchase stocks on the TSE, my best bet is to find an ADR. The universe is much smaller, but there are still plenty of ideas and you have a much better chance of finding a diamond with individual stocks rather than the Japanese ETF’s or closed end funds such as JOF.

Japanese ADR’s to StudyThis site provides an outdated list of Japanese ADR’s and I have removed the stocks that no longer trade in the US.

Download the Japanese ADR stocks for excel. It has over 70 stocks you can look through. Most of them have zero volume on the OTC but it will be a good exercise to go through them.

For more Japan investing thoughts, here are some additional links that may interest you.

Can Turtles Fly blog also has a post up on JapanBuy Japan / Investing in Japan Q&A by Geoff GannonDisclosure: None

Value Stock Screen Q1 2011 Performance

April 9th, 2011 by Jae Jun

Print Friendly Print Get a PDF version of this webpage PDF Predefined Value Stock Screen Performances

I created these predefined value stock screens in order to keep a constant flow of ideas coming in and to somewhat automate my investment process. The best way to find truly original and off the wall ideas would be to go through every company starting from the A’s in the SEC database, but for  most people, this is unrealistic.

Through these screens, based off my own research and study, I hope to produce ideas that are not producible with just a free standard screener.

The screens are essentially the same as last year, except some parameters have been tweaked and adjusted to account for more realistic trading. A lot of the OTC stocks have been filtered out and I would like to do the same with the Chinese stocks , but that is a hard ask at the moment.

The most obvious point jumping out at me is the negative results of the insider buys and share buyback screen. Something I’ll have to look at and see why.

On the other hand, the CROIC and NNWC increasing stock screener is continuing last year’s outstanding performance where CROIC returned 44.9% and NNWC increasing returned 43.8%.

You can read more about the details of each screen from last year’s performance discussion.

User Interface Changes to ScreenersIn case you have not checked out the new site design, the screener section has some changes.

The screens are now being displayed as an embedded spreadsheet so that you can easily copy and paste into your own spreadsheet.

Listen to The Intelligent Investor right Now

April 25th, 2011 by Jae Jun

Print Friendly Print Get a PDF version of this webpage PDF

The Intelligent Investor has supposedly been read by every value investor, but I highly doubt it. If you haven’t read it or just were not able to make it all the way through, you are at the right place.

An audio version of The Intelligent Investor is available for you to download and take with you anywhere. Play it in your car, while working out, or on your favorite music player.

To be able to stream the files or download it, you have to use the widget below. If you are an email reader, come to the site to take advantage of it.

The Intelligent Investor Audio

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Cellectis Bioresearch First To Launch Revolutionary Custom TAL Nuclease Service

PARIS, Jan. 25, 2011 /PRNewswire/ — Cellectis bioresearch, a specialist in genome customization and a subsidiary of Cellectis (Alternext: ALCLS), has today announced that it will launch gene specific TAL(1) nucleases on February 28, 2011.

Taking advantage of an exclusive license agreement with the University of Minnesota, Cellectis has rapidly integrated TAL effector nucleases into its DNA nuclease production platform. TAL effector nucleases are sequence specific DNA scissors that can be custom engineered to target and modify any gene of interest, in any species. Cellectis is able to produce TAL nucleases in around one week, providing scientists with rapid access to custom-made products.

"This technology has a huge potential and could revolutionize the genome customization world. Being the first to launch TAL nuclease services puts us in an attractive position to gain significant share of the multimillion dollar market for custom DNA nucleases," explained Marc Le Bozec, CEO of Cellectis bioresearch.

"We add yet another asset to our portfolio of important genome customization tools, and invite you to visit our website on February 28, for the official launch of our custom TAL nuclease offer," added Luc Selig, VP Sales and Marketing of Cellectis bioresearch.

About Cellectis bioresearch

Cellectis bioresearch was incorporated as a subsidiary of Cellectis (Alternext: ALCLS) in June 2008. It provides life science researchers with ready- and easy-to-use tools for genome customization.  These tools, based on sequence specific endonucleases, enable the engineering of cells with optimized features for drug discovery, protein production and gene function studies. The genome customization products and services can be purchased online from www.cellectis-bioresearch.com.

About Cellectis

Cellectis improves life by applying its genome engineering expertise to a broad range of applications, including agriculture, bioresearch and human therapeutics. Cellectis is listed on the NYSE-Euronext Alternext market (code: ALCLS) in Paris.

 

Disclaimer

This press release and the information contained herein do not constitute an offer to sell or subscribe, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe, for shares in Cellectis in any country. This press release contains forward-looking statements that relate to the Company's objectives based on the current expectations and assumptions of the Company's management only and involve unforeseeable risk and uncertainties that could cause the Company to fail to achieve the objectives expressed by the forward-looking statements above.

Portfolio Update Mar 2011

April 4th, 2011 by Jae Jun

Print Friendly Print Get a PDF version of this webpage PDF 2011 1st Quarter Stock Portfolio Performance

Positive for the year, but lagging behind. Not concerned as my portfolio contains some clearly undervalued but illiquid stocks, making short term performance difficult to judge.

What’s with Mr Market?First quarter is out of the way, and with the events that have rolled out in just the first three months alone, I am left scratching my head at how the market is doing so well. While Mr Market obviously feels optimistic, I remain on the cautious side and hesitant in adding new or big positions.

Had you told me at the beginning of the year that three major international events (Egypt, Japan, Libya) would be taking place, I would have concluded that buckets of opportunities would exist. Looking at where we are now, Mr Market has recovered and moved on from all three major events.

As the market continues on up, it is times like these where sitting and waiting patiently is one of the hardest things to do.

Retail Holdings (RHDGF)Throughout the first quarter, I have mostly been monitoring positions and adding on drops.

One such addition in March was Retail Holdings (RHDGF). RHDGF announced that it had decided not to pursue the sale of its Bangladesh subsidiary citing “turbulent equity market conditions”.

This news brought the stock down 16% and goes to show how inefficient the market is when it comes to international micro cap stocks. Despite the cancellation of the sale, the value of the company remains the same yet it went on sale for a few days before returning to a somewhat more reasonable level.

Even at the current price at $15.70, RHDGF is undervalued by as much as 40%. With the CEO owning 20% of the company, special dividends distributed between 2007 to 2009 and management stating that they are looking to monetize assets and return it to shareholders, you have a very shareholder friendly management who understand the value of their business seeking to unlock the value.

(I mentioned this on the old school value facebook page by the way)

Here are two excellent analyses of RHDGF.

Sum Zero analysis of Retail HoldingsDollars for Thirty-Cents: Retail Holdings N.V.Meruelo Maddux Properties (MMPIQ)This bankruptcy special situation investment sure is taking many turns.

Greedy management is now sneakily requesting an amendment to the Plan or Reorganization in which they will be able to appoint all seven board members, effectively hoping to eliminate any non insider influence. Debtors are voting to accept the request as it will only benefit them if equity holders disappear.

I bought more MMPIQ when it dropped to 40c and will be sending a letter to the Judge ASAP objecting to such amendment requests.

If you are a shareholder of MMPIQ, send your letter to the judge ASAP and speak up. Here is a sample letter.

Books-A-Million (BAMM)BAMM is having an awful year so far with the falling out of the traditional book retailer sector. Borders group has filed bankruptcy and the perception for brick and mortar bookstores is not getting any better. But it leaves me to think that it has been overdone.

BAMM still remains profitable on a full year basis and consistent . Despite a slowdown in the fourth quarter, BAMM should be able to able to produce FCF above $15m when the annual report comes out. On this basis, BAMM would be trading at a P/FCF of 4. Flipping it over, the FCF yield is 25%.

At $4, the valuation is becoming ridiculously low. Even with zero growth, given the level of consistency and the health of the company, BAMM should be at a minimum of $6. That’s a potential 50% gain from current levels.

But with such negativity surrounding the entire sector, it will take a couple of years before the value becomes recognized or even accepted by the market.

Gravity Co (GRVY)The year end result shows that revenue and subscription revenue decreased primarily from Rganarok Online. But the decline has been expected for many years, which is why GRVY has been acquiring games in order to further diversify their income.

The effect of this can be seen if you compare the non consolidated financial statement with the consolidated. The addition of the new games is offsetting Ragnarok’s decreasing revenue and better still, GRVY remains in excellent financial health. However, with the acquisitions, the once clean financial statement has now become messier as extra entities make their way into the consolidated financial statement.

Cash has obviously gone down with the new game purchases but overall the balance sheet remains healthy with no long term debt.

Intangibles has increased 28% which is a large jump. Should any of the newly acquired games fail, expect intangibles to written down.

A cause for concern is that accounts receivables increased 32% and accounts payable jumping 70%. While it is too soon to be alarmed at such increases, it does require monitoring.

The other big news to anticipate in the second quarter is the long awaited launch of the sequel to Ragnarok Online. This is the big catalyst that I have been waiting for. Thankfully, the current price offers a solid downside protection with an even bigger upside.

Brief NotesBOLT: Additional information on their new acquisition is out. Seabotix looks like an interesting company but at the moment, it won’t add too much to BOLT’s operation. Now that i have the new details, I’ll be looking to unload BOLT at the right price.

YNGFF: Dropped significantly lately and the company successfully converted existing warrants. The deal wasn’t the best for the company but it certainly is MUCH better then further diluting shareholders to raise capital. It looks like the company was in desperate need for cash but once they complete winterizing the mining facilities, production can go on all year round without any downtime during the winter season.

Gold is not likely to drop any time soon and at $1400/ounce,  YNGFF will be a very profitable investment in the future. Will take at least 1 year before production can be achieved and to see the levels that I am expecting.

RDI: Land on the balance sheet remains hugely undervalued. A simple waiting game. Selling at book value but the land value understates current worth.

Disclosure: Long RHDGF, MMPIQ, BAMM, GRVY, BOLT, YNGFF, RDI

Old School Value: The past, present, and future.

April 14th, 2011 by Jae Jun

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Along with the site design, I updated many of the pages and one of them was the about me page. After four years, it needed an update to better reflect what the site stands to achieve.

So let’s take a short break from the regular investment posts and read about the past, present and future of old school value.

Short Background

My dad started “investing” when I was in school but has since turned to day trading in order to pick up daily profits. A profit each day was not guaranteed but I clearly remember the range of emotions he displayed when making and losing money.

Like many people, he acted on stock tips from friends, bought into story stocks and hoped for the lotto stocks.

A lot of our savings was poured in to fund his trading and having witnessed this while growing up, it was no wonder that I grew an incredible negative bias towards stocks.

Stocks were a gamble.

How I got started

But one day, I became an adult and left home. I got a job and started to think about retirement. I got a retirement account through my employer and didn’t know what to do. So I stuck my money in a random mutual fund that had the highest return over the past 3 years.

Around the same time, I also ended up signing up for variable life insurance and realized my returns were 0% while the insurance sales agent collected all the fees and commissions.

I forfeited my $3,000 account and decided to manage my own money.

How Old School Value got started

Without having ever taken a finance, accounting or economics class, I didn’t know where to start, so I started  by reading books. The Intelligent Investor was the first investment book I read, and to be honest, I found it to be the driest, most boring book I have ever read.

But I kept at it and read more books. Finally, it came to a point where I needed a way to record and apply everything I had read. That’s where Old School Value comes in. It started out as a journal to keep track and to share what I had learned.

Old School Value stands for the old school methodologies of value investing. I have no interest in over leveraging, using complicated option strategies or using margin.

Old School Value Today

Old School Value is now in its fourth year.

Over the years, this site has evolved into a value investing service by offering free and paid stock analysis tools, stock screens and a forum for people to share ideas.

However, Old School Value continues to offer timeless educational material in order to bring as many people into the world of value investing.

The focus here is to keep the quality as high as possible. Rather than publish several articles a week with little substance, I prefer to keep quiet if it is of little importance. This way, I won’t be overloading you with information and you can go through the articles at your own pace.

This is the same for the tools I offer. If something is not worth selling, then it is not worth giving away.

Keeping it Real

I am just a regular person. This site is not some second persona where I try to make myself look like a stock picking genius. I’m not.

What I hope people get out of this site is to become open to new ideas, learn new concepts and methods, and then to share it with others. At the same time, I hope people continue to challenge my very own views.

Too many investment sites lack honesty and candidness. If I make a mistake, I will own up to it before anyone else. You will hear about my successes as well as my failures.

My returns are not inflated or displayed in a way to make it seem better than it really is. Being independent, open, honest, transparent and approachable are vital keys for my own development as an investor.

Ethical Investing

Investing in stocks is investing in businesses, and there are certain types of businesses that I do not wish to support in real life which I apply to my investing. The temptation is always there to make money regardless of industry or company, but I believe investing requires social responsibility.

For this reason, I do not invest in any of the following:

Gambling stocksAlcohol stocksTobacco stocksAdult entertainment stocksMy Mission

In case you have not read the footer, my crazy goal one day is to help sponsor 1,000 children around the world. Currently I do this through a Christian organization called Compassion

The experience of having visited three of the children I sponsor in Colombia, really opened my eyes and heart to what is important. My goal could always be to make more money, but there is more to life than self satisfaction and living comfortably.

I’m not a philanthropist or somebody seeking to change the world. Nor am I am better person than anybody else. I just happen to be moved by helping less fortunate people, while other people are moved by different things.

Through Old School Value, I aim to offer quality tools, articles and information for the small investors. On a personal level, I hope to become independent so that I can focus on giving back as much as possible.

You’ve read my background, you’ve read the objective and you’ve read the mission. That’s what old school value is about and me.

Saturday, April 30, 2011

Stock Market Summary

Stocks finished higher today with the major indexes closing near session highs.  In addition, the DJIA posted another new high.  Investor participation was ok and market breadth was good.  As a result, we are raising the support levels on the DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite (see below).  Also, we are increasing the resistance level for the DJIA but leaving it the same for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite (see below).  Overall, we continue to believe the prudent approach is continue selling into strength and avoid becoming aggressive with opening new positions in stocks based on how far the stock market direction has run without a significant pullback.  Don't let a position turn into a big loss if the market trend suddenly changes.  If you need to own stocks, please see our open watch list below.

 

SUMMARY

 

DJIA: Up 0.9% to 11,981

S&P 500: Up 0.6% to 1,291

Nasdaq Composite: Up 1.0% to 2,718

 

BREADTH FOR NYSE

 

Advancing Issues: 2,143

Declining Issues: 904

Advance/Decline Ratio: 2.4 to 1

 

New Highs: 113

New Lows: 10

High/Low Ratio: 11 to 1

 

SUPPORT/RESISTANCE LEVELS

 

DJIA: 11,706/12,029

S&P 500: 1,274/1,295

Nasdaq Composite: 2,701/2,766

 

SECTOR ANALYSIS

 

Technology was the best performing sectors up 1.4% while Financials and Health Care were the worst performing sectors down 0.1%.

 

Other Sectors:

 

Consumer Discretionary Up 0.4%

Consumer Staples Up 0.2%

Energy Up 0.5%

Industrials Up 1.0%

Materials Up 1.1%

Utilities Up 0.6%

 

OPEN WATCH LIST SYMBOLS (Through Monday, January 22, 2011)

 

(SH: 42.6919 0.00 0.00%) added @ $46.03 on 11/12/10; current price @ $42.69; 7.3% loss

(PSQ: 33.40 0.00 0.00%) added @ $35.05 on 12/8/10; current price @ $33.40; 4.7% loss

(RWM: 32.30 0.00 0.00%) added @ $32.79 on 12/16/10; current price @ $32.30; 1.5% loss

(UUP: 22.44 0.00 0.00%) added @ $22.80 on 1/14/11; current price @ $22.44; 1.6% loss

(EUO: 19.40 0.00 0.00%) added @ $20.30 on 1/14/11; current price @ $19.40; 4.4% loss

(FDO: 43.44 0.00 0.00%) added @ $44.64 on 1/21/11; current price @ $43.44; 2.7% loss

 

CLOSED WATCH LIST SYMBOLS

 

(UUP: 22.44 0.00 0.00%) added @ $22.56 on 10/20/10; removed @ $23.51 on 11/30/10; 4.2% gain

(EUO: 19.40 0.00 0.00%) added @ $19.19 on 10/20/10; removed @ $21.65 on 11/30/10; 12.8% gain

(APOL: 41.87 0.00 0.00%) added @ $37.77 on 10/28/10; removed @ $39.97 on 12/31/10; 5.8% gain

(NUVA: 27.91 0.00 0.00%) added @ $25.11 on 11/12/10; removed @ $26.03 on 12/31/10; 3.7% gain

(DLR: 52.37 0.00 0.00%) added @ $52.22 on 11/26/10; removed @ $53.01 on 12/10/10; 1.5% gain 

(CSCO: 21.17 0.00 0.00%) added @ $19.36 on 12/2/10; removed @ $20.91 on 1/6/11; 8.0% gain 

(UUP: 22.44 0.00 0.00%) added @ $23.14 on 12/8/10; removed @ $23.37 on 1/10/11; 1.0% gain 

(EUO: 19.40 0.00 0.00%) added @ $20.79 on 12/8/10; removed @ $21.73 on 1/10/11; 4.5% gain 

Listen to The Intelligent Investor right Now

April 25th, 2011 by Jae Jun

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The Intelligent Investor has supposedly been read by every value investor, but I highly doubt it. If you haven’t read it or just were not able to make it all the way through, you are at the right place.

An audio version of The Intelligent Investor is available for you to download and take with you anywhere. Play it in your car, while working out, or on your favorite music player.

To be able to stream the files or download it, you have to use the widget below. If you are an email reader, come to the site to take advantage of it.

The Intelligent Investor Audio

How to Calculate XIRR for Annualized Returns

January 24th, 2011 by Jae Jun

Print Friendly Print Get a PDF version of this webpage PDF The current portfolio tracking spreadsheet has its shortcomings as it doesn’t include non invested cash when calculating returns.

The true returns of any portfolio will include all cash flows and I have found the XIRR function in excel to be the best to calculate annualized returns.

If calculating returns was as simple as taking the beginning balance and ending balance and then calculating the absolute return, tracking investment returns would be so much easier.

But there is time value in money and once you start depositing or withdrawing cash and receiving dividends, it makes calculating annualized returns that much more difficult.

Investing $1,000 in January certainly is much different to investing $1,000 in December, before the year end.

That’s where the XIRR feature in Excel comes in.

Using XIRR to Calculate Annualized ReturnsWith XIRR you can calculate annualized returns even when cash flow for your account is irregular.

As an example, the starting balance is $10,000 with regular deposits and some gains totaling a portfolio balance of $15,000 on Jun 27 2010.

At first glance, without taking into account the cash deposits, you could be fooled into thinking the return is 50%. However, if you use the XIRR function, the calculated annualized return is much less at 28.8%.

As you can see, if the cash flows become longer and irregular with different cash flows, the calculation by hand becomes virtually impossible.

Free Spreadsheet to Calculate Annualized and Cumulative ReturnsNow you can calculate your returns quickly and easily with this free spreadsheet to calculate your portfolio returns.

Enter your beginning balance at the very top with deposits as positive values and withdrawals as negative values.

Enter the date next to each corresponding cash flow and if you need to calculate the return for any particular date, enter it into the third column.

Just make sure the ending balance is negative with a date to prevent errors.

The results will then look like the image below.

Full credit goes to a site called Gummy Stuff that is unfortunately no longer online for giving me this idea.

Download Portfolio Return XIRR Spreadsheet

Excel 2007 and newer only.No special plug ins required.Just enable macros and run.