New Gold Inc. (USA) made New 52 Week High Price - AMEX:NGD

New Gold Inc. (USA) (AMEX:NGD) achieved its new 52 week high price of $13.00 where it was opened at $12.58 up +0.12 points or +0.97% by closing at $12.47. NGD transacted shares during the day were over 4.45 million shares however it has an average volume of 3.61 million shares.
NGD has a market capitalization $5.61 billion and an enterprise value at $5.31 billion. Trailing twelve months price to sales ratio of the stock was 8.43 while price to book ratio in most recent quarter was 2.60. In profitability ratios, net profit margin in past twelve months appeared at 45.98% whereas operating profit margin for the same period at 36.03%.
The company made a return on asset of 5.28% in past twelve months and return on equity of 12.79% for similar period. In the period of trailing 12 months it generated revenue amounted to $659.32 million gaining $1.65 revenue per share. Its year over year, quarterly growth of revenue was 52.80%.
According to preceding quarter balance sheet results, the company had $490.45 million cash in hand making cash per share at 1.09. The total of $246.69 million debt was there putting a total debt to equity ratio 11.57. Moreover its current ratio according to same quarter results was 4.09 and book value per share was 4.75.
Looking at the trading information, the stock price history displayed that its S&P500 52 Week Change illustrated 4.84% where the stock current price exhibited up beat from its 50 day moving average price $11.00 and remained above from its 200 Day Moving Average price $10.26.
NGD holds 449.89 million outstanding shares with 435.92 million floating shares where insider possessed 3.35% and institutions kept 58.30%.

DuPont Beats Analyst Estimates on EPS

DuPont (NYSE: DD  ) reported earnings on April 19. Here are the numbers you need to know.
The 10-second takeawayFor the quarter ended March 31 (Q1), DuPont met expectations on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.
Compared to the prior-year quarter, both revenue and GAAP earnings per share expanded.
Gross margin grew, while both operating margin and net margin contracted.
Revenue detailsDuPont recorded revenue of $11.23 billion. The 13 analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ foresaw revenue of $11.18 billion on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 11% higher than the prior-year quarter's $10.11 billion.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS detailsNon-GAAP EPS came in at $1.61. The 16 earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ predicted $1.55 per share on the same basis. GAAP EPS of $1.57 for Q1 were 3.3% higher than the prior-year quarter's $1.52 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin detailsFor the quarter, gross margin was 33.1%, 60 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 18.3%, 10 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 13.2%, 100 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.
Looking aheadNext quarter's average estimate for revenue is $11.23 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $1.47.
Next year's! average estimate for revenue is $41.27 billion. The average EPS estimate is $4.24.
Investor sentimentThe stock has a four-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 1,671 members rating the stock outperform and 108 members rating it underperform. Among 443 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 432 give DuPont a green thumbs-up, and 11 give it a red thumbs-down.
Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on DuPont is outperform, with an average price target of $56.
Can your portfolio provide you with enough income to last through retirement? You'll need more than DuPont. Learn how to maximize your investment income and "Secure Your Future With 9 Rock-Solid Dividend Stocks." Click here for instant access to this free report.

Krawcheck Seeks to Open Gold to the Masses at GBI

Sallie Krawcheck, speaking at SIFMA conference last fall. (Photo: AP) Sallie Krawcheck, speaking at SIFMA conference last fall. (Photo: AP) Sallie Krawcheck, one of the financial industry’s most well-known executives, joined the advisory board of Gold Bullion International on Wednesday largely due to her belief in asset and portfolio diversification, according to the company. Plus, the former head of Bank of America-Merrill Lynch’s (BAC) wealth-management unit thinks that investors of all levels should have the opportunity to invest directly in precious metals. “She is by no means making a call on gold but sees it as part of the diversification of investor portfolios, and this is a great way to do it," said GBI CEO Savneet Singh, in an interview with AdvisorOne. “She became aware of us and saw the value of the product and how it is democratizing [the ownership of] real assets.” GBI provides broker-dealers, RIAs and investors with access to a platform for purchasing, vaulting and owning physical precious metals. Its main customers, according to Singh, are several of the major wirehouse broker-dealers—though he declined to state which “No. 1 and No. 2” firm GBI works with. (Industry experts generally consider Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley (MS) to be the largest wirehouses based on assets under management.) “She knows both [the advisor and investor] end markets very well and that interplay,” said Singh (right), “and we needed to learn and get further exposure to these markets.” Having Krawcheck on the GBI board, he adds, “is a good way to help us meet more people in the industry as we seek to expand our broker-dealer clients.” “I don’t know of anyone with more experience in the [wealth-management] field,” Singh said. “How could we get anyone who knows the end-customer better?”

Great Stocks To Hold 2013

Jim Cramer is known for his top performing returns when running a hedge fund and for his stock picks on the "Mad Money" television show. Recently, Cramer has been telling investors to consider some attractive oil and energy stocks, many of which have dropped due to concerns about the debt crisis in Europe. The ultimate resolution for Europe might lead to loose money policies and inflation. Many believe the European Central Bank (ECB) needs to lower rates and print money, much as the Federal Reserve did in the last financial crisis. When you consider that oil is trading at about $99 per barrel, that is a sign that there will be no global economic calamity. In fact, the high price of oil in the midst of a weak economy is probably indicating that oil markets are betting that Germany will ultimately allow the ECB to lower rates and print money. Money printing and low interest rates tends to lead to inflation, and this would support much higher oil prices. Here are some oil and energy stocks that Cramer finds compelling now:

Great Stocks To Hold 2013:Newpark Resources Inc. (NR)

 Newpark Resources, Inc. and its subsidiaries provide fluids management, waste disposal, and well site preparation products and services primarily to the oil and gas exploration and production industry. The company operates in three segments: Fluids Systems and Engineering, Mats and Integrated Services, and Environmental Services. The Fluids Systems and Engineering segment offers drilling fluids products and technical services to drilling projects involving subsurface conditions, such as horizontal, directional, geologically deep, or deep water drilling. This segment also provides completion fluids and equipment rental services. The Mats and Integrated Services segment offers mat rentals, location construction, and related well site services to exploration and production customers in the onshore U.S. Gulf Coast, western Colorado, and northeast U.S. regions; and mat rentals to the utility industry in the United Kingdom. It also installs access roads and temporary work sites for pipeline, electrical utility, and highway construction projects. This segment manufactures and sells DuraBase composite mat systems for domestic and international markets, as well as for use in its domestic rental operations. The Environmental Services segment processes and disposes waste generated by oil and gas customers, and provides onshore drilling waste management and reclamation services. The company provides its products and services primarily in the United States Gulf Coast, west Texas, east Texas, Oklahoma, North Louisiana, Rocky Mountains, and northeast region of the United States, as well as Canada, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and North Africa. Newpark Resources, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.

Great Stocks To Hold 2013:Transportadora De Gas Sa Ord B (TGS)

 Transportadora de Gas Del Sur S.A. engages in the transportation of natural gas, as well as production and commercialization of natural gas liquids primarily in Argentina. It operates approximately 8627 km long pipeline system. The company transports its natural gas to distribution companies, industries, traders, producers, and power plant operators. The company?s production and commercialization activities are conducted at the Cerri Complex located near Bahia Blanca. Its natural gas liquid products comprise ethane, propane, butane, and natural gasoline. It also provides midstream services, which consist of gas treatment, gas compression, and wellhead gas gathering services; removal services for impurities from the natural gas stream; and pipeline construction, operation, and maintenance services. In addition, the company offers telecommunication services for telephone operators and other corporate users. Its telecommunication network includes a microwave's digital system with synchronous digital hierarchy technology. The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Transportadora de Gas Del Sur S.A. is a subsidiary of Compania de Inversiones de Energia S.A.

Great Stocks To Hold 2013:Vanguard Natural Resources LLC (VNR)

 Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC, through its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition and development of oil and natural gas properties in the United States. Its properties are located in the southern portion of the Appalachian Basin, primarily in southeast Kentucky and northeast Tennessee; the Permian Basin, primarily in west Texas and southeastern New Mexico; and south Texas. As of December 31, 2010, the company had estimated proved reserves of 69.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, as well as working interests in 2,270 net productive wells. Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC was founded in 2006 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Great Stocks To Hold 2013:Constellation Energy Group Inc. (CEG)

 Constellation Energy Group, Inc. operates as an energy company in the United States and Canada. The company develops, owns, operates, and maintains fossil and renewable generating facilities. As of December 31, 2010, it holds interests in qualifying facilities and power projects totaling to 9,030 megawatt (MW), as well as manages approximately 1,100 MW associated with long-dated tolling agreements. The company also provides operation and maintenance services, including testing and start-up to the owners of electric generating facilities. In addition, it offers electricity, natural gas, and other energy products and services to wholesale and retail electric and natural gas customers. The company supplies approximately 119 million megawatt hours (MWH) of aggregate electricity to distribution utilities, municipalities, residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental customers; approximately 334 million British Thermal Units of natural gas to residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental customers; and approximately 7.8 million tons of coal primarily to its own fleet. Further, it manages generation facilities and natural gas properties; provides risk management services; trades energy and energy-related commodities; manages upstream natural gas activities; designs, constructs, and operates renewable energy, heating, cooling, and cogeneration facilities; provides home improvements; and engages in the sale of electric and gas appliances, and servicing of heating, air conditioning, plumbing, electrical, and indoor air quality systems. Additionally, the company purchases, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity, as well as purchases, transports, and sells natural gas in central Maryland. It maintains approximately 240 substations and approximately 1,300 circuit miles of transmission lines, and approximately 24,800 circuit miles of distribution lines. The company was founded in 1906 and is based in Baltimore, Maryland.

Best Wall St. Stocks Today: YHOO,MSFT,IACI,JPM,TGT,AMGN,JNJ,GE,AIG

According to Reuters, regulators unveiled a plan to toughen rules for mortgage brokers.
Reuters writes that Yahoo! (YHOO) and Microsoft (MSFT) have begiin informal discussion about the buy-out.
Reuters reports that IACI (IACI) CEO Barry Diller claimed in court that Liberty Media had given him its proxy to run the company.
Reuters reports that JP Morgan (JPM) is in talks about buyng half of the Target (TGT) credit card business.
The Wall Street Journal writes that the SEC plans to tell companies that they can provide ranges for the values of securities that are hard to gauge.
The Wall Street Journal writes that many start-ups hold he same illiquid auction rate securities that big companies do.
The Wall Street Journal writes that large auto companies are trying to cut more costs as sales fall furher.
The New York Times reports that an FDA panel has recommended limiting the use of anemia drugs from Amgen (AMGN) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).
The New York Times reports that the CEO fo GE (GE) used a webcast to pitch he value of his company’s shares.
THe FT writes that that the dollar dropped to a record low.
The FT writes that write-downs at AIG (AIG) is urging regulators to amend the "fair value" regulations which have caused it write-downs.
Bloomberg writes that Chinese factory spending rose 24% causing more concerns about inflation.
Douglas A. McIntyre

Five Some tips for getting Indigenous U . s . Native american Bracelets

Nothing at all lets you show your own personality, really feel closer to the actual character connected with traditional United states lifestyle, and increase a thing fantastic and private for your real life sporting an authentic Indigenous United states band on your hand. Wait, how can you correctly go with a real, attractive bit which states the correct reasons for anyone?
The fantastic artistry, impressive lure, and enjoyment inspiration connected with Indigenous United states American indian earrings cause them to the top choice for the one who wants to wear a thing quite different in comparison with all the others and own a unique section of diamond jewelry. Even so, the range of styles, the actual not known legitimateness, and the impracticality of choosing the right store can make the selection challenging.
Fortunately, selecting your own Indigenous United states band doesn’t have to be challenging in any way. Once you know a couple of simple points to keep in mind, it is possible to relax and retail outlet for your heart’s content material, devoid of that will concern about doing an incorrect selection as well as dealing using a band that isn’t good for you.
1. Aqua earrings can be found in a lot of kinds.
Everybody has an alternative mental image offer their services after they hear “turquoise earrings.In You might snapshot significant stones, closely chilled and getting to tidy throughout the hand. Or you could imagine of any spherical, mandala-like design connected with more compact blue-green stones on a focal point on top of the actual hand, while using band having to wrap around beneath.
The truth is, the utilization of aqua green throughout Indigenous United states earrings is actually different, typically employed in conjunction with other, multi-colored stones as well as clever utilization of sterling silver and also other materials. Usually, the top bit will include a few modest aqua green portions to intensify other colors and finishes. However ,, many portions use aqua green stones as their principal feature, and do this while using utmost art and beauty.
It can be your responsibility which in turn you prefer, however, you could retail outlet safe and sound in the knowledge that Indigenous United states aqua green retains it is elegance at the same time other trends come and go.
2. Convenience is actually gorgeous.
It can be feasible for the actual bit that will talks to the finest is simple throughout design. Perhaps it’s a sterling silver band using a uncomplicated twisted routine, or a restrained with a leash group of side rails. Probably your personal style and personality usually are accented best by the band using a sole, significant rock connected with aqua green and other nutrient — simply a a little coloration to catch a persons vision. Challenging designs and particulars might look really good inside retail outlet show circumstance, yet are certainly not automatically the sort of Indigenous United states band that are great for your own flavor.
3. Intricacy is actually gorgeous.
Conversely, the actual intriguingly complex designs of a elaborately-crafted band could be the dialogue bit that will sets off confidence, enthusiasm, and in some cases appreciating remarks through other folks! The well-known pro that has gone in a band with clever juxtapositions of the company’s designs and carvings, rubber stamps, stones and/or silverwork is usually just the thing that will enhances your knowledge and conveys to be able to other folks what exactly you wish to state.
4. Simply retail outlet in places where provide purchaser safeguard.
Probably the most secure, free of charge strategy to retail outlet is the place where you will know your purchase is actually insured by the trustworthy company. Within this net era, the right spot to acquire Indigenous United states earrings is actually on the internet, by means of internet sites that offer safeguard towards the purchaser.
For instance, the actual net’s highest regarded ah, craigs list, has a huge selection of sale listings presenting one-of-a-kind Indigenous United states earrings and also other diamond jewelry. craigs list capabilities an in depth system to make sure buyers are content; it is possible to get hold of the property owner previous to putting in a bid, check remarks through the vendor’s previous customers, send payment correctly using your plastic card by means of PayPal, keep the personal information concealed, and in some cases attract craigs list when a product just isn’t as defined.
Furthermore, craigs list sale listings feature more than one images of the merchandise, in addition to it is proportions and, typically, the actual piece’s record. In a nutshell, you should stick to places similar to craigs list that will gather buyers and sellers with many sheets connected with safeguard available for you. The largest sites evolved into large because of purchaser total satisfaction, that they take very really.
5. No person is aware what you require just like you perform!
Retailers attempt their finest to make use of ornate language and genuine descriptions to get your company. Even so, known only to you what’s good for you. Make sure you’re delighted about the economic safeguard anyone to be a consumer are receiving, it is possible to song all the out there and simply find the Indigenous United states band that will talks to you the loudest. You already know which one which is… it’s only reliant on seeking before you still find it! Take a look at internet sites similar to http://native-american-store.fournotes.com for the widest number of earrings and vendors. Choices always good!
Whether getting a attractive Indigenous United states band by yourself, as well as to be a surprise to get a friend, it is critical to do not forget that you will discover super easy ways to make certain you are receiving the top bargain. You would like to ensure the actual band is actually genuine, the property owner is reputable, and the design fits anybody it’s going to be adorning. Makes use of the suggestions on this page and you are essentially confident for being happy with your own gorgeous, exclusive band!
Many of one of the best ebook readers might end up being discovered the following, however one will be able to moreover locate designer purses best of all miss me if you go to our own internet site

Fighting Inflation With Pre-1965 Silver Dollar Coins

American consumers have noticed that the price of everything is going up: food, clothing, fuel, and other necessities. Paychecks do not stretch as far as they once did. It is difficult to manage, much less thrive during times like this.
Or is it? In the past year, I have questioned what to do with my stock portfolio. Is it safe, can I retire, will I have money when I need it most? In the midst of the economic turmoil, I found one answer.
The Silver Lining
I found my answer to economic security in junk. Investors and collectors refer to dimes, quarters, half dollars, and dollars minted on or before 1964 as “junk silver coins,” because they have no value to collectors. But this does not mean they don’t have value to investors.
Mercury and Roosevelt dimes, Franklin and Kennedy half dollars, and Washington quarters, among others, issued before 1965 are sought after by silver investors because they contain 90 percent silver. A bag of these coins can net investors from 715 to 720 ounces of refined silver.
Make Rising Prices Work for You
Like the price of almost everything else, the price of precious metals has been increasing. Gold, for instance, has exploded in value and now sells for over $1000 per troy ounce. As of now, though, prices for silver are quite low, especially considering the rising demand and contracting supply.
Trends on precious metals indicate that the silver dollar will increase in value by mid-2009. At the beginning of 2009, silver prices were around $13.00 per ounce. Currently, an ounce of silver is worth $16.65.
If you had invested in one ounce, just 10 pre-1965 coins, at $13.00, you would have seen a substantial profit. Imagine if you had had a whole bag of junk silver. Not really junk, is it?
How far will silver prices rise? It is not out of the realm of possibility for silver to sell for $100.00 per ounce, or even $1000 per ounce. Those junk silver coins may not be collectors’ items, but they will have netted you generous premiums.
Silver’s Benefits
Silver retains value, and even grows in value, during times when inflation runs rampant. It presents investors with a good way to secure their money and ensure that it is still worth something in the future.
Silver is also very easy to being investing in. Unlike complex stock portfolios, you need only to begin purchasing silver coins minted before 1965. They are easy to find and easy to recognize.
You can begin looking on eBay for junk silver coins or visit any number of other sources including, CMI Gold and Silver, Monex Deposit Company, Lynn Coin, and CC Gold. These are excellent sources for inexpensive junk silver coins.
For some other valuable tips and suggestions download our Free Guide and get started today.

Netflix Earnings: Beating Expectations, Or An Expert Spin Zone?

I released an article yesterday concerning what I considered the "Devil in the Details" of Netflix's (NFLX) projections. However, it appears that Reed Hastings learned his lesson from last summer and decided to downplay projections this time around. Hastings and Co. beat their own expectations, but the profit slippages y/y was ignored under the guise of international expansion. Hastings played up the growth of streaming amidst the death of the DVD business, but as Erick Schonfeld points out in his recent article, NFLX is essentially transferring from a 52% margin business to a 10.9% margin business. Why the bulls are eating this transition up is beyond me. If I were a stockholder, I would be confused regarding NFLX's motivations to essentially abandon an extremely lucrative market.
The reasoning? DVDs are not sexy, they are not Cloud, they are not Web 2.0, they are old news… retail business. Retail prices around 10 P/E in this environment whereas online growth stocks are on fire-P/E ratios can soar out of control-Netflix was priced around 100 P/E less than 6 months ago. Hastings wants to pump the stock price, so he is abandoning the proven retail model in favor of a large multiple "growth" industry.
Stock Buyback Blunder
Several decisions bring Hastings' management and Wells' financial prowess into question. Primarily the buyback blunder- In November 2011, NFLX announced that they were raising an additional amount of capital through convertible bonds and stock offerings; however, their behavior throughout 2011 suggests that this need for funding was unexpected. Either the off-balance sheet liabilities were going to hit harder than expected, or international expansion was proving far more expensive.
Details are below, but in summary, NFLX essentially gave away a net 1.96M shares for free.
In addition, the terms of the convertible zero-coupon bonds allow for conversion of up to 2.33M shares at a price of $85.80 per share. Both of these deals increase net dilution by 4.29M shares y/y, while only contributing a net $200M in cash, essentially a net sale of $46.62/sh.
Q1-11, repurchased 502,000 shares @ $216.48 -- $108.7M
Q2-11, repurchased 216,000 shares @ $238 -- $51.4M
Q3-11, repurchased 182,000 shares @ $218 -- $39.7M
Q4-11, sold 2.86M shares @ $70 for $200M
International Black Hole
I believe that the primary reason for raising additional capital was to both absorb massive content costs in Q1-12 and to provide financing for international moves (the two are not mutually exclusive). While this is similar to what Hastings' has said, he downplays how close NFLX was to the brink on cashflow. After suspending buybacks, NFLX would have entered 2012 with only $110M in cash. With international losses in 1Q-12 pegged at $108-$118M, this alone would eat the cash, let alone additional content payments. Over the past six months, expenses have risen 19.5% while revenues have risen 11%, while this isn't horrible overall, it's not a healthy sign either.
Debt/Obligations vs Cash
At the end of FY2010, NFLX had a current assets/liabilities ratio of 0.92.
At the end of FY2011, NFLX has a current assets/liabilities ratio of 0.76.
Perhaps a better ratio would be quick ratio, which discounts inventory. Netflix's inventory is essentially worthless on market-value since they can't exactly auction off their contracts.
Quick ratio 2010: 0.90 // Quick ratio 2011: 0.65
Quick ratio 2011 without Debt/Equity Offering: 0.33
This points to the necessity of the recent financing. Also, the reported numbers are only current as of December 31, 2011, so they do not include the several UK/Ireland contracts that were inked in January. They also do not include further off-balance sheet liabilities (below Q3-11):

Unfortunately NFLX might not file their updated 10-Q until February (they filed Feb 18 last year), so even this outstanding debt is approximately 4 months outdated. Compare this to the offsheet liabilities of Q3-10:
To be fair, it appears that NFLX is including their "less than 1 year obligations" under content accounts payable in the most recent (Q4-11) shareholder letter. NFLX lists these at $925M, which does NOT include anything signed in January. If the 1-3 years are added in to long-term content liabilities, where they SHOULD belong, NFLX's total liabilities increase by 2.14B, although total long-term assets (intangible goods) could also increase by 2.14B until the contracts are amortized, this changes the aforementioned current assets/liabilities ratio to 0.40 or 0.31 disregarding the "necessary" equity/debt offering.
Please also keep in mind that the 2.14B of liabilities (1-3 years) is approximately 4 months outdated, the number is likely considerably higher by now.
To also be fair, Netflix is NOT going bankrupt anytime soon, but I would not be surprised if the combination of the international black hole and domestic competition from Hulu and Amazon (AMZN) knocks them out by mid-2013.
The Subscribers Game
Finally, let's examine Reed Hastings' (and Netflix PR's) final spin piece that enable NFLX to jump 15% after hours: the subscriber results (note: all data taken from Excel sheets on NFLX IR)
At the end of Q3-11 Netflix had 21.45M streaming subs, 13.93M DVD subs, 1.48M intl subs, for 25.27M total. Here's the rub: NFLX includes free subs in their numbers; Q3-11 actual was 23.82M (989k intl included).
Hastings' NFLX projections for Q4-11 (in Q3-11 letter) were purposefully vague. On subs, one can project that he means "total" (i.e. not free) but there's no clarification. Also, "total global unique" is NOT included. ONLY DVD total, streaming total, and intl total.
The US news is blasting that NFLX gained 220k streaming subs… let's see what REALLY happened: in Q3-11 NFLX had 20.51M PAID streaming subs while in Q4-11 NFLX had 20.15M PAID streaming subs. Wait a minute--- That's a LOSS of 360k PAID streamers in the US.
Meanwhile, the high margin DVD-unit dropped from 13.81M paid subs to 11.04M paid subs -That's a LOSS of 2.77M PAID DVD subs in the US.
The "big" international move that saw losses of $60M in Q4-11? Well, they added 458k subs… Not bad until you figure that's roughly an acquisition cost of $131/sub.
So - NFLX lost 2.77M DVD subs and 360K streaming subs in the US, but still managed to gain a net of 15k paid subs? How is that possible? I'll tell you how: 3.145M subscribers who used to be on a hybrid plan are now on a single plan. That's a revenue loss of 301M annually - revenue that NFLX will NEED to pay the upcoming contractual obligations.
The Spin Zone
Am I a bit biased, and perhaps sharing the negative sides? Sure. That's all part of the online analytical blogosphere. Similar to how several political analysts can watch a debate and come up with different stories.
I analyze companies based on inherent value… and Netflix looks like it is headed for the tubes. I just think it's time that investors stop taking Hastings and NFLX at face value and actually dive into the numbers a little bit.
If all financial analysts had a due diligence level that went beyond reading only the "Letter to Shareholders," I'd be surprised to see NFLX at 50% of its current market value.
Disclosure: I am short NFLX via 1w puts and Febuary 2012 puts. I may initiate a further short position through March-August 2012 puts.

Prisons, social media, mining gear and snack foods are covered in this week's roundup of ETF alternatives

Until Warren Buffett sent his annual letter to shareholders Saturday, the highlight for stocks last week was the S&P 500 hitting its highest level since June 2008. In an otherwise slow week, investors had something to talk about. Here at InvestorPlace.com, several stocks were on the minds of our writers. In my weekly roundup, I’ll look at some ETF alternatives.
Beginning the week, crime was on Lawrence Meyers’ mind. On Feb. 20, he pointed out that Corrections Corporation of America (NYSE:CXW), the largest private prison company in the nation, is really a real estate business that happens to also run prisons. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman owned a big position in CXW until the middle of 2011, when he moved into J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP), likely because of the hiring of Ron Johnson, Apple‘s (NASDAQ:AAPL) former head of retail, around the same time.

Investors who like what they see at Corrections Corporation of America might consider two exchange-traded funds in its place. The first is First Trust’s Industrials/Producer Durables AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE:FXR), which takes the top stocks from the Russell 1000 index that exhibit both growth and value factors. Corrections Corporation of America has a 0.99% weighting and is one of 103 stocks in the portfolio. With an expense ratio of 0.70% and an annual turnover of more than 100%, the fund is expensive to own and not very tax efficient.
A second idea is the Rydex S&P MidCap 400 Equal Weight ETF (NYSE:EWMD), which unlike the quant fund earlier, has 400 equal-weighted stocks that are rebalanced quarterly and reconstituted annually. Although Corrections Corporation of America’s weighting is only 0.24%, its expense ratio is 43% cheaper at 0.40%. Long-term I like the Rydex fund because equal-weighted funds tend to do better than cap-weighted funds and quant funds are simply too complicated for average investors.
On Feb. 21, Tom Taulli was talking up Groupon‘s (NASDAQ:GRPN) acquisition strategy. The daily-deal site raised $700 million in its December IPO and is busily spending some of that stash in an effort to improve its technology relative to LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) and others. I’ve never been a fan of Groupon’s business model, but those who are will likely be interested in the Global X Social Media Index ETF (NASDAQ:SOCL), which invests in all the big names in social media, including Groupon at 3% of the portfolio.
I had previously recommended SOCL on Feb. 13as a good alternative to Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA), which accounts for 4.49% of the fund. For social media, it’s the only game in town.
InvestorPlace.com editor Jeff Reeves was on Boston’s WRKO AM 680 on Feb. 22, extolling the virtues of Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), suggesting that the maker of construction and mining equipment is a good long-term play based on its business in emerging markets and an economy that continues to recover. Back in November I picked Joy Global (NYSE:JOY) over Caterpillar as the better stock to own. After the way Caterpillar manhandled its Electro-Motive employees in London, Ontario, I’m confident I made the right choice despite short-term results indicating otherwise.
However, if you must own this labor despot, a better alternative would be to buy the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLI), which gives you ownership of some of this country’s biggest industrial companies, including Caterpillar at 5.67% of the portfolio. The fund has almost $4 billion in assets, its expense ratio is cheap at 0.18% and it has provided good long-term performance. Eventually, all stocks revert to the mean, and Caterpillar is due.
Kellogg‘s (NYSE:K) recent acquisition of Pringles from Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) for $2.7 billion made Jeff Reeves take notice on Feb. 23. It turns out P&G had a Plan B if its original deal with Diamond Foods (NASDAQ:DMND) fell apart, which it did.
Kellogg suddenly finds itself in second place in the snack-food business. I like Kellogg as a stock, but you have to wonder about the integration process given the quality-control issues the food giant has faced in the past couple of years.
Consumer-staples stocks have done well in recent years. A good defensive position that also gives you a piece of Kellogg would be to buy the Consumer Staples Select SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLP), which has an annual expense ratio of 0.18%. It has 44 holdings, including the maker of Special K at 1.25% of the portfolio. Long term, you won’t find many funds more predictable.
Jim Woods wrapped up the week on Feb. 24 talking about 24 companies that increased their quarterly dividends. The rise that most caught my attention was that of Herbalife (NYSE:HLF), which bumped its dividend by 50%, to $0.30 quarterly. With share repurchases outweighing dividend payments by 300% in the past three years, this was a good opportunity to provide shareholders with a more tangible reward.
Despite the increase, HLF’s yield is still below 2%. Consumer Staples Select is the obvious choice, but it doesn’t hold Herbalife. Instead, go for the Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (NYSE:VDC), which has a small HLF weighting (less than 1%), but an SEC yield of 2.69%, giving you better income and diversification.
As of this writing, Will Ashworth did not own a position in any of the stocks named here.

Highlighting The Kings Of The Dividend ETFs

Perhaps the most popular fad among investors over the past couple of years has been interest in dividend-paying stocks; with yields at record lows and risk aversion regularly spiking, portfolios have shifted towards stocks of companies known for making regular distributions of their cash flows. Not surprisingly, many investors are embracing ETFs to achieve exposure to dividend-paying stocks; the exchange-traded structure allows for cheap, low maintenance, rules-based exposure to this segment of the market.
There are more than 40 different ETFs available to U.S. investors that utilize dividends in some shape or form in developing their underlying portfolio of stocks. But not all of these funds offer up meaningful yields; many focus on dollar value or consistency of distributions, as opposed to the dividend yield individual stocks offer. As a result, many of the ETFs that include “dividend” in the name or a dividend-related screen in the underlying index don’t have very appealing payout rates [see SDIV vs. VIG: Understanding Dividend ETFs].
There are, of course, a number of exchange-traded funds that are designed to deliver hefty yields to investors–often times along with considerable amounts of risk. For those willing to take on some of those risk factors, the rewards can be substantial. Below, we outline five ETFs and ETNs that maintain massive distribution yields [for more ETF ideas, sign up for the free ETFdb newsletter]:�

Global X Super Dividend ETF (SDIV)

This fund’s name says it all:�the “Super” Dividend ETF currently recently boasted a juicy 8.7% 30-Day SEC yield and has accumulated over $44 million in assets since its inception in June of 2011. SDIV provides investors with exposure to the performance of 100 companies that rank among the highest dividend yielding equity securities in the world.�Perhaps the most unique feature of SDIV is its weighting methodology; the underlying index is equal-weighted, meaning that no one stock accounts for a meaningful portion of total fund returns.
Although the fund’s portfolio stretches across a broad array of sectors, nearly a quarter of the holdings are allocated to real estate followed by�relatively�hefty allocations to communication services, financial services, and consumer cyclicals. In terms of country allocations, the majority of the holdings are U.S. and Australian companies, which account for more than half of the fund’s total assets.�It is also worth noting that this ETF comes with a relatively high level of risk, since many of the companies included in the portfolio are smaller and potentially volatile stocks.

ETRACS 2x Leveraged Long Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index ETN (MLPL)

Despite being in one of the most feared and risky asset class, this leveraged ETN has attracted many investors with its impressive performance and 2x monthly amplified returns. The fund’s current annual leveraged yield is a whopping 10.7%, thanks in part to the use of leverage to magnify the yield on an underlying basket of MLPs.
MLPL is linked to an index that consists of Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs); the majority of these publicly traded limited partnerships operate in the energy infrastructure industry. Typically MLPs are companies that own and operate assets such as natural gas or crude oil pipelines and historically have provided�relatively�high dividend yields. Since this ETN’s leverage is reset on a�monthly basis, it will operate in a very different manner from leveraged ETPs that reset daily.

ETRACS 2x Leveraged Long Wells Fargo Business Development Company ETN (BDCL)

This ETN offers investors a unique way to tap into the universe of private equity investments, specifically Business Developement Companies (BDCs). BDCL offers exposure to this previously difficult-to-reach corner of the financial market, while also generating a potentially handsome dividend yield. Since its inception in May of 2011, this leveraged fund has accumulated over $37 in assets and currently features an annual leveraged yield of nearly 19%.
The hefty payout potential is partially a result of some favorable tax treatments for the underlying securities; BDCs can avoid many corporate taxes as long as they pay out at least 90% of their profit and capital gains as taxable dividends. Like all leveraged products, BDCL holds a relatively high level of risk since it has the potential to amplify both returns and losses. Another note worth mentioning is the fund’s structure: ETNs are subject to the credit risk of the issuing firm, but unlike their ETF counterparts, they do not�exhibit tracking error.�

PowerShares KBW High Dividend Yield Financial Portfolio (KBWD)

Financial equities are often a heavy allocation in most dividend-focused funds, as banks and similar institutions are generally a source of stable distributions. KBWD, however, has proven to be a powerhouse in its category, currently delivering an eye-popping 12 month yield of more than 10%. Despite this attractive yield, investors should be aware of this relatively risky fund as its portfolio includes some of the less stable financial institutions that aren’t necessarily on strong fiscal footing.�
KBWD is linked to a dividend yield weighted index that is designed to track the performance of approximately 24 to 40�publicly�listed financial companies. In terms of specific sub-industry breakdown, almost half of the fund’s assets are allocated to mortgage REITs companies, followed by hefty allocations to regional banks, and asset management & custody banks.�

iShares FTSE NAREIT Mortgage REITs Index (REM)

REM taps into the�intriguing and potentially lucrative world of the U.S. equity market: REITs. Understandably, most investors have been�leery�of this particular sector since the collapse of residential and commercial real estate markets in 2008, which resulted in many REIT funds loosing hefty chunks of their profits. With broad real estate markets sitting at a low point, REM has been handsomely compensating investors for low prices by beefing up distribution yields; currently, REM offers a juicy 12-month yield of about 11%.

Ford Will Outshine Competitors In 2012

U.S. auto sales spiked in March, a good sign for the improving sector. Auto sales were estimated by LMC Automotive to have risen by 6% to a four-year high. The firm also predicted that sales would continue to improve throughout the year and that some automakers could reach all-time sales records. Chrysler reported a 34% increase in U.S.-based sales in March, while competitors General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) also reported increases of 12% and 5%, respectively. General Motors moved down on the news while Ford moved up, but both stocks are ready to trend higher.
March was Ford's best month in five years. Monthly sales reached 223,418 vehicles, a 5% improvement from last month. Sales in four of Ford's top-line models increased to new highs, including the Fusion, Focus, Edge and the F-series pickup trucks. The company has increased sales by 9% in the first quarter of 2012, a continuation of the trend in car sales started last year.
Ford has been improving sales and gaining market share since last year, but the stock price does not reflect this yet. The stock has been trading between $12 and $13 for more than three months, and is only valued at 6.5 times earnings.
Signs of growth in the U.S. auto market is a reassuring indication of an improving economy. However, it would be nice to know if people are merely taking advantage of low rates and great deals to replace old vehicles, or if the market is really back for a sustainable period of time. Subprime buyers helped drive the new sales figures, drawn by deals not available to them since the financial crisis.
There is other good news too, news that supports the strengthening trend in U.S. auto sales. The final number for fourth-quarter GDP held stable at 3%. There were 243,000 jobs added in January, and other unemployment statistics are still trending down. The four-week moving average of initial claims, the number of continuing claims and total claims all continued to trend down.
Initial jobless claims data were getting rosy until revisions to the week ending March 17 put a stop to what was shaping up to be a nice downward trend in initial unemployment claims. Now, with the revisions it looks as if layoffs and job losses are beginning to bottom out and there is a renewed risk that unemployment could rise from four-year lows. A rise in unemployment could derail the trend in car sales.
Ford is ready to move higher. I think the stock is ready to explode to the upside. The question is what will be the catalyst. The company should be releasing earnings in the next month and that could be it. The stock could easily gain 15%-25% and trade in a range between $15 and $16 dollars. The dividend, around 1.5% at the current prices, comes as an added bonus.
General Motors is doing well too, seeing strong improvements since it emerged from restructuring. The company's March sales improved by 12%, led by small cars and crossovers with over 30 miles per gallon. The total sales of all General Motors passenger vehicles increased by 22% in the month. CEO Daniel Akerson seems to be getting the company under control, but it is still carrying some dead weight. Sales of Buick and Cadillac both fell by more than 13% in March. The two brands only represent a small percentage of General Motors' sales but remain a drag on improvements.
I do expect to see a continuation of market leadership from the company. It is scheduled to unveil a number of redesigned vehicles during 2012 and expects to have updated vehicles in 60% of market segments by year-end. Continued competition with foreign and domestic automakers will help the entire industry improve. Competition is good for business and is what's bringing the U.S. auto market back.
Both companies have been improving in overseas markets, despite worries of slowing global growth. General Motors set another February sales record in China by selling over 240,000 vehicles. This was a 30% increase from February last year. Ford Export and Growth Director Hal Feder recently reported that the Export and Growth segment set an all-time monthly sales record in February 2012 and continued a 15-month streak of new records.
General Motors stock has been trading in tight range over the last three months, just like Ford. Currently trading around $26, the stock is building support and looks as if it is ready to move to the upside as well. Shares of General Motors could easily gain $6-$7 and trade in the range between $32 and $35. The company comes with a caveat Ford does not: The government still owns a large chunk of the company stock and will be a seller when the price moves high enough.
Asian-based competitor Toyota Motors (TM) also increased its U.S. sales in March. The company increased sales by over 15% but failed to meet analyst expectations. Consensus estimates expected a gain of 21%. March marked the first time since 2008 that Toyota sold more than 200,000 vehicles in the U.S. Toyota stock is trading around $86.50 and looks extended. The market in this stock is thinly traded and is not as good a choice to ride the improving U.S. market. The stock is grossly overvalued at 56 times earnings compared to Ford and General Motors, which are both valued around 6.5 times earnings.
Nissan Motor (NSANY.PK) reported a 12.5% increase in March sales and set a company record. Sales were helped by incentives that helped draw buyers into the market. Nissan is trying to sell off its remaining Altimas in preparation for the release of an updated version scheduled to be released in July.
German automaker Volkswagen AG (VLKAF.PK) reported that sales rose 35% in the month and broke a record last set in 1973.
The data clearly show that the U.S. auto market continues to improve. The trends in sales that began last year are expected to continue this year. The stock of U.S. automakers is undervalued compared to earnings and is poised to rise. I think that Ford is the clear choice to ride this market. Ford is undervalued compared to the Japanese automakers and insulated from the European debt crisis, unlike German-based Volkswagen. Ford is stronger than General Motors, simply because it was able to restructure and regain its competitive edge without any government assistance. General Motors carries the stigma of bailout money and bankruptcy. The effects of the bailout will impact General Motors' price until the government sells it shares in the company and long after. Ford, unlike General Motors, also pays a dividend, which adds a little extra to the trade. Both companies are going higher; Ford is just a better choice.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Down Memory Lane as Dow Closes Above 13000 - SmartMoney.com

Also See

• The Dumbest Investment Move
• With Funds, How Important Is Family, Really?
• Dow Hits 13,000, But What Next?

After flirting with the milestone for days, the Dow managed to close above 13000 today -- a mark not reached since 2008.
It may just be a number -- the market didn't undergo a magical transformation upon hitting 13000 -- but such milestones do have a psychological impact, experts say. And even if pronouncements made following big numbers have a history of being way off base, investors and analysts just can't help speculating. "They're really psychological levels that people can relate to," says Scott Wren, senior equity strategist for Wells Fargo Advisors. "Investors think, 'When was the last time we were here?'"

A Brief History of Market Milestones

2:20

As the Dow pierces 13,000 on Friday, Jonnelle Marte joins Markets Hub with a look back at other milestones. Photo: Associated Press.

As the market nears 13000 this time around, some investors are reflecting on how far they've come since the financial crisis. While many recovered what they lost in 2008, others are still trying to bounce back. The average participant in a 401(k) plan broke even between 2007 and 2010, according to Vanguard. Some investing pros also view the Dow's recent gains as a sign that markets are calming and a sign that gains might continue in the coming months.
But for all the hoopla around market milestones, investing pros say these thresholds don't really move markets too much up or down. Some jittery investors come off the sidelines and back into the market after reaching such levels, while others use the opportunity to sell some shares and take gains. Either way, experts say investors often get carried away with emotion and ignore key factors like stock valuations, monetary policy and economic growth that have a bigger impact on markets. That's why it pays to look back at the last few times stocks hit a big milestones and whether investors' expectations weren't met. "We need to learn from history," says Diane Pearson, an adviser with Legend Financial Advisors in Pittsburgh.
Here is a recap of some of the Dow's biggest milestones, how investors viewed the market at the time, what really happened and what lessons were learned.

Dow 5000

• November 21, 1995

Getty Images

What the pros predicted: When the Dow crossed the 5000 mark for the first time in November 1995, President Bill Clinton was in his second year of office, the U.S. was coming out of a recession and the world was buzzing about the newly launched World Wide Web. Having crossed 4000 just nine months before, pros expected more rally ahead.
What happened: The threat of another recession interrupted some of that run-up, but the U.S. recovered and technology stocks took off as anticipated, says Wren. By Valentine's Day 1997, the Dow had topped 7000.
Lesson for investors: Watch trading volume. While stocks kept increasing, it was a minority of investors pushing stocks higher, says Pearson. If the broader market isn't behind a move up, it may not be sustainable, says Pearson.

Dow 10000

• March 29, 1999

Getty Images

What the pros predicted: Investors bedazzled by the Internet began to dump other quality stocks to get a piece of the technology sector, driving the Dow above 10000 for the first time in March 1999. Some pros began to question whether traditional measures like valuations, which showed that stocks were beginning to get expensive, would still matter in a post-web world where stocks were expected to keep soaring. "We had that feeling of unlimited potential," says Wren.
What happened: The tech bubble burst and stocks peaked at 11723 in January 2000. The Dow tumbled in the following years, bottoming out at roughly 7200 in October 2002.
Lessons for investors: Don't ignore valuations. The fact that the rally was led by two sectors -- technology and telecom -- should have been a warning sign that it was not sustainable, says Wren. And many investors need to have a sell strategy for taking profits and cutting losses when stocks are on their way down, says Pearson.

Dow 12000

• Oct 19, 2006

Getty Images

What the pros predicted: The Dow had risen 12% so far that year, as both regular investors and fund managers loaded up on blue chips. And while some investing pros raised red flags about the slumping housing market (it was also the 19th anniversary of the 1987 stock-market crash), many other analysts and fund managers said the rise would continue so long as inflation and interest rates remained in check.
What happened: Stocks would shoot up another whopping 2000 points over the next nine months, peaking at about 14000.
Lesson for investors: When formerly jittery investors throw caution to the wind and starting snapping up stocks, analysts say the market may be due for a correction -- or a crash. By mid-2008, stocks would be begin their steep descent back down (see next slide) and the U.S. would see its worst downturn since the Great Depression.

Dow 13000

• April 25, 2007

Getty Images

What the pros predicted: After the Dow doubled in five years to reach 13000 in April 2007, investors were emboldened by a growing global economy, a booming housing market and low interest rates. Optimistic investors briefly pushed the Dow to 14000 just three months later and many expected the run to continue.
What actually happened: The housing market collapsed and the credit crunch took a toll on businesses, causing stocks to take a 50% dive by March 2009. Unemployment soared, forcing many investors to pull out of stocks and lock in their losses.
Lessons for investors: High levels of debt, at both the individual and business level, can weigh down the economy, says Wren. Many investors also ignored signs that pointed to a strained housing market, he adds. Advisers say investors should remember to scrutinize companies' balance sheets to prioritize low debt and strong balance sheets.

Dow 14000

• July 19, 2007

Getty Images

What the pros predicted: After the Dow topped two major milestones in nine months, some investors viewed 14000 as just another notch in the market's steady climb up. Encouraged by strong corporate profits, many continued to buy stocks.
What actually happened: The Dow's reign above 14000 was fleeting. Early signs of the credit crisis sent stocks tumbling soon after, and the index plunged below 12000 in the months that followed. The Dow hit 13000 again in 2008 before stocks plummeted to a low of 6547 in March 2009.
Lesson for investors: Many of the largest market moves happened on days when trading volume was low, a sign the gains were artificial, pros say. Investors learned the degree to which high oil prices, a weakening mortgage market and economic uncertainty could take their toll on stocks.

Japan: Assessing The Aftershocks - SmartMoney.com

In the days following Japan's earthquake and tsunami last March, money manager Neil Hennessy had a decision to make. Should he continue with the trip to Tokyo he had planned for April, visit the managers of his Hennessy Select Sparx Japan funds and check on the country where his subadvisory firm manages about $50 million in assets? At the time, Tokyo still trembled with regular aftershocks, and fears ran high of radiation leaks from the nuclear plant to the north. Hennessy's wife and friends bluntly told him to cancel the trip.
But within hours of touching down at Narita International Airport, Hennessy knew he had made the right call. The nighttime view from his 27th-floor room at the InterContinental Hotel sparkled less than on previous trips, because Tokyo's neon lights had gone dark. But instead of being alarmed, Hennessy took the massive civic effort to conserve power as a sign of Japan's ability to surmount the crisis.

Four Japanese Themes

Many pros say it's a bad idea to buy the broad Japanese stock market; rather, you need to pinpoint a strategy. Some options.
Robotics titans.Japan has seen its dominance challenged in the auto and consumer-electronics industries, but most analysts agree that it remains No. 1 in robotics.
Asian connectors. "An increasing number of Japanese manufacturers get up to 25 percent of their revenue from China,"
says Charles de Vaulx,
chief investment officer
of IVA Funds.
Savvy buyers. Japanese firms have a reputation for overpaying for acquisitions, but analysts say many firms today are wisely taking advantage of the strong yen to diversify strategically.
Global-production leaders. For years, Japan's aging and expensive labor force spurred firms to outsource their production. Now many companies do the lion's share of their production abroad, making them far more efficient, pros say.

Now, a year after that visit, Hennessy says that Japan may indeed be one of the best places in the world to find breakout stocks. It's the kind of statement, certainly, that merits a double take or two. After all, this is the same market that many investors have written off as the biggest value trap in the developed world. One of Japan's main stock indexes, the Nikkei 225, was down about 17 percent in 2011, about as much as the indexes of the world's other developed nations (except the U.S.; Standard & Poor's 500-stock index was flat, not including dividends). Long before the cataclysm of Mar. 11, 2011 a tragedy that took more than 15,000 lives, destroyed coastal towns and pummeled the country's industrial supply chain there were plenty of seasoned money managers who wouldn't touch Japan with a 10-foot samurai sword. Real estate prices in some areas have been on a 20-year decline. The country has struggled with an aging population, mounting debt and deflation. What's more, the strong yen has hurt exporters by making their products more expensive abroad.
But Japan is quietly attracting the interest of some big names in investing. The list includes everyone from William Kennedy, manager of the $8.1 billion Fidelity International Discovery fund, who says he's finding "incredibly good companies" there, to a guy named Warren the Oracle of Omaha says he's shopping for a "big investment" in the country. (Buffett doesn't do things small.) In all, dozens of managers are now flocking to Japan, looking to pick up great companies on the cheap, even if they're still wary of Japan's market as a whole. Indeed, what has emerged in the year since the great quake is a surprising, almost Dickensian plotline a tale of two recoveries. On the one hand, many experts and investors say they hold little hope for a swift resurgence of Japan's economy, yet many of those same folks see a slew of blue-chip stocks that are on the cusp of a bull run.
There are at least a dozen big companies, Japan watchers say, that have the potential to outperform even if the broad Japanese stock market continues to slump. These companies are pushing into new markets, outsourcing production and making smart acquisitions. They're no different from successful companies anywhere; they just happen to have their headquarters in Japan. Case in point: Nidec, a Kyoto-based maker of small motors for hard drives and other applications. The company's CEO and founder, Shigenobu Nagamori, is a true iconoclast, says Taizo Ishida, lead manager of the $132 million Matthews Japan fund. In his meetings with Ishida, Nagamori always says, "We have nothing to do with the Japanese economy."
Another strategy, say some fund managers, is to focus on firms in industries in which Japan remains the global leader. One favorite is Fanuc, a robot manufacturer, which makes the big arms that move cars through the production line. Japan's industrial firms will have to rely more and more on factory automation to replace aging skilled workers, say experts, while China has increasingly turned to robots, following years of double-digit wage inflation.
To be sure, even Japan's best-positioned companies aren't immune to a global recession. But in a sense, says Ishida, these firms may have a surprising edge in a low-growth environment; they've been dealing with one domestically for more than 20 years, he points out. The successful companies have adopted strategies to cope, such as looking beyond Japan's borders for economic opportunities.
While funds are the easiest way for investors in the U.S. to access Japanese stocks (most of which are not listed on U.S. exchanges), several brokerages, including Fidelity, Schwab and Raymond James, allow customers to buy stocks directly on the Tokyo or Osaka exchanges, with certain limitations. Ironically, though, it's another limitation that's prodding some investors to make the leap into Japan: There might not be much more money to lose. Japan's stock market has fallen a jaw-dropping 78 percent from its 1989 peak. The Nikkei 225 index now trades for less than its book value, or the sum of the companies' parts. The S&P 500, by contrast, trades for 1.9 times book value, according to FactSet Research Systems. Given how steep the fall has been, many managers say whatever downside remains is likely to be modest. That's partly why Josh Strauss, manager of the $200 million Appleseed fund, decided to invest after last year's quake. "The risk that worries me is dead money," Strauss says. "The risk in this market is the kind I'm willing to take."

10 Rules For Trading Calendar Spreads

Would you like to profit from sideway markets or stocks? Would you like to take advantage of the different time decays and different Implied Volatility in different expiration months? Then calendar spreads might be for you.
A calendar spread is a strategy involving buying longer term options and selling equal number of shorter term options of the same underlying stock or index with the same strike price. Calendar spreads can be done with calls or with puts, which are virtually equivalent if using same strikes and expirations. They can use ATM (At The Money) strikes which make the trade neutral. If using OTM (Out Of The Money) or ITM (In The Money) strikes, the trade becomes directionally biased.
Let's take a look at a sample Apple (AAPL) trade which I shared at my Premium Educational Forum on March 11, 2012:

• Sell AAPL April 545 call
• Buy AAPL May 545 call

The trade could be done last Thursday after the iPad announcement for a debit of $7.50-7.60. The P/L graph looks like a tent:
The maximum gain is realized if the stock is at $545 by April expiration. If this happens, the April call will expire worthless but the May call will still have value. How much value? Depends on IV (Implied Volatility) at that moment. We can estimate that it might be around $16-18. So with initial debit of $7.50, the trade will give us over 100% gain. I personally would close it much earlier. My profit target of calendar spreads is typically 20-30%.
How the calendar spread makes money?
The first way is the time decay. The idea is that the near term option is losing value much faster than the back month option. Sounds good, doesn't it? The problem is that the stock will not always act according to our plan. If the stock makes a significant move, the trade will start losing money. Why? Because if the stock moves up to say $650, both options will have very little value and the spread will shrink. Of course $650 is a bit extreme move in one month, but you get the idea.
The second way a Calendar Trade makes money is with an increase in volatility in the far month option or a decrease in the volatility in the short term option. If there is a rise in volatility, the option will gain value and be worth more money. In case of Apple, IV of the April options was high due to the pending iPad announcement and was expected to go down.
Managing the position is the key. What happens when the stock makes a significant move and the trade starts losing money? Having an exit plan before entering the trade is extremely important.
Here are some basic rules and guidelines to follow with calendar trades:

1. Always check the P/L graph before placing the trade. You can use your broker tools or some free software. I generated the P/L graph using the OptionsOracle software.
2. Avoid trading through dividends date.
3. Avoid trading through major news like earnings announcements. The only exception to that rule is when you want to take advantage of the inflated IV of the front month, but those are highly speculative trades which might have a significant loss if the stock has a large post-earnings move.
4. The front month options should expire in 5-7 weeks.
5. Have an exit plan before you enter the trade. My profit target is typically 20-30% and my mental stop loss is around 15-20%.
6. If the stock reaches one of the break-even points, I would typically adjust by opening another calendar spread around the current price, converting it to a double calendar.
7. Trade stocks which are in a range or having a positive volatility skew (front month IV is higher than back month).
8. Never hold through the expiration week of the front month to avoid the gamma risk.
9. Most of the time, placing the trade with puts will be cheaper than with calls.
10. Most of the time calendar spreads work better when IV is low. Those are vega positive trades which means they benefit from increase in IV.

Those are my rules, yours might be different. They just fit my comfort zone.
So how is our Apple calendar spread is doing?
Well, with the way the stock is moving in the last few days, you would assume the trade is a huge loser. However, since the April IV went down after the iPad announcement and the May IV went slightly up, the trade could be closed this Tuesday for around $8.50. In fact, even yesterday (Wednesday), the trade could be still closed at 8.30-8.40, even with the stock at $582. That's 10-13% gain, despite the huge movement of the stock.
Always make the Implied Volatility your friend. It will save you a lot of money.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

5 Stocks That Could Be Bought Out In 2012

It's only one week to go before Valentine's Day and we're keeping an eye out for any eye-catching stocks that could lure bigger companies into a buyout.
Milking it
Neogen Corp (NEOG) has a stable of unique intellectual property and it has the financial results to prove it. Its gross margin has consistently been around 50% for the last 10 years, dipping briefly in 2009, and it has kept its net margins between 11 and 12%. No wonder the maker of food safety testing kits and veterinarian products is a debt-free cash machine of note.
The suitor
In 2010, financial analyst Andy Cross punted Neogen as a private equity buyout target, but I think its product range will perfectly complement another larger manufacturer in the veterinary and food safety industry.
The product range of IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. (IDXX) sticks closely to all of veterinary science's disciplines, with antibiotic screening tests for dairy producers and water microbiology testing as add-ons. Neogen also covers veterinary diagnostic instruments and pharmaceuticals, but it has toxicology, food safety, genomic solutions, and research test kits that will add girth to IDEXX's portfolio.
Neogen is trading around $33 at the moment and has a market capitalization of $778.22 million; nearly 30% down from its one-year high. If shareholders want to hold out for that kind of reward, a buyout would cost $1.1 billion or around $46 per share, but I think we could see an offer nearer to $40.
Disruptive influences
We are witnessing the downfall of long established industries that played dominant roles in the economy and thought they would do so in perpetuity. Fixed line telecoms and postal service-related businesses are on their last legs unless they can adapt. But in manufacturing, the seeds are only germinating now.
Stratasys, Inc. (SSYS) is the leading producer of 3D or direct digital manufacturing printers. A computer-aided design goes straight from a computer and immediately the part can be manufactured without any set-up. This enables customers to manufacture low volume products at mass production costs. Ideal for prototypes, which was its first application, but it also allows for mass customization to take place.
The suitor
Best described as diversified, Dover (DOV) has four divisions and thirty two subsidiaries that produce a range of products from all-wheel-drive power train systems to hearing aid components. Its largest segment is the engineered systems division that manufactures industrial components as well as sophisticated manufacturing equipment.
The one thing Dover's subsidiaries have in common though, is the autonomy they're allowed. This system will suit Stratasys who will still enjoy independence while gaining sales from Dover's existing clients. Dover on its part will gain a further subsidiary that produces sophisticated manufacturing equipment, but also offers design, prototyping, and consulting services.
Stratasys, trading around $40, has a market capitalization of $864.81 million and an enterprise value of $849.58 million according to YCharts. It might prove an incentive to be part of a large conglomerate, but I expect an offer to still come at a premium. An offer between $47 and $48 per share, or between $990 million and $1.02 billion could make shareholders give way.
Broadening the spectrum
It has built its business model specializing primarily in the production of diagnostic kits for infective diseases, but Meridian Bioscience, Inc. (VIVO) also has a smaller Life Science subsidiary. The subsidiary manufactures bulk antigens and reagents, proteins and other biologicals for use in the discovery of drugs and vaccines and as bulk medical reagents.
The suitor
According to Trefis.com, 26.3% of Merck & Co's (MRK) stock price is attributed to anti-infective drugs, which is also the biggest contributor to the stock price. Its market share has dropped from 33.5% in 2007 to 28.9% and it is predicted to steadily slide into the lower twenties over the next three years.
Apart from alimentary and metabolism drugs, accounting for 18.3% of its share price, all its product ranges are predicted to lose market share over the next five years. Alimentary and metabolism drugs are predicted to grow Merck's market share from 7.3% to 11.4% in 2018. It's time for this drug manufacturer to diversify.
Meridian's $740.73 million enterprise value is small change for Merck, but it will be a good start on the way to diversifying the company. We could see an offer around $25, up from Meridian's current trading price of around $18.
Pupil and master
The economic downturn has been unexpectedly good to certain industries. The tough career market has pushed many people who are in mid-career to undertake further training to advance their careers. This is illustrated by the rise in middle-aged student debt, the majority of which can be attributed to enrollment in for-profit schools.
One of the schools to have benefited from the upturn is Grand Canyon Education (LOPE). The institution provides on campus and online post-secondary education services, and focuses on graduate and undergraduate degree programs in its core disciplines of education, business, and healthcare. The fact that it is located in Phoenix, Arizona has also been a boon to the school. The city has the second highest job creation data in healthcare and education jobs - two of the main focus areas of the school.
The suitor
With two schools - Ashford University located in Iowa and University of the Rockies in Colorado - Bridgepoint Education (BPI) was only founded in 1999 and acquired its first two for-profit education institutions in 2005 and 2007. Bridgepoint could feel it's time to extend its footprint into Arizona.
Grand Canyon has revenues of $108.91, which it produces with a gross profit margin of 55.07% and profit margin of 11.82%. Its stock is currently trading around $17, although we could still see an offer over its $753.82 million market capitalization. Perhaps a bid around the 52 week high of $19.30 would entice Grand Canyon shareholders to allow the companies to merge.
The eye of the beholder
Revlon, Inc. (REV) manufactures color cosmetics, women's hair color, skin care, fragrances, antiperspirants and deodorants, and beauty tools. The company's name is still closely associated with color cosmetics by consumers, but debt levels haven't allowed it to develop any strong brands recently.
The suitor
It will need someone to realize the potential that could be created from Revlon's name. The Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (EL) might be that someone. The majority of the company's value is created by strong brands in its skincare and cosmetics range, with fragrances and hair care the lesser elements, and it has the ability to extract gains from a buyout of the smaller stock.
Revlon's market capitalization is $824.97 million and the stock trades around $16. I don't see an offer reaching the stock's 52-week high of $19.33; rather a buyout offer could be made below $18 per share.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Advantages of Virtual Office for Business Owners

With the great advancement in technology and the development of the internet, the idea of a virtual office has become very popular. You have to know that virtual office is an affordable alternative for an office space that would involve different types of overheads like meetings, office rent and other infrastructure expenditure. Modern technology allows people to use fax, email, instant messaging, teleconferencing and telephone in connecting group of people at different parts of the globe to give them an opportunity to work for one business owner.
With the internet offering great facilities, you can build a great virtual network of employees. Both the employer and employees could function independently, but still in fusion. This is a great way to save time and money. In fact, working anytime and anywhere is the most beneficial feature of the virtual office. As well, that way you will not have any restrictions that you can deal with in a traditional office.
Setting up virtual office you may avoid insurance, health care and some other similar expenses.
In fact, the virtual office is the best option to choose if you:
- work from home, but still need business identity,
- are conscious of your budget and do not want to invest more than needed into your business,
- work from home, however still require business identity,
- do not want to spend time on commuting,
- are on the move and therefore you do not want to spend on the office space,
- are just developing your business.
You should know that virtual business owners face some difficulties when they run their home based businesses. Time management may become hard as working from home may cause distractions such as children. But using the art of managing your time well and becoming disciplined in your work, then you could become successful virtual business owner.
Want to run business in Hong Kong? Consider make use of company registration Hong Kong. You can even save some money starting with virtual office Hong Kong for some time.

How Apple Sways the S and P 500 Index

The Wall Street Journal recently had a couple of articles on Apple that I found interesting and thought I’d share with you. These articles basically show the tremendous outsized impact that Apple shares have had on the S&P 500’s performance over the past few days as Apple’s stock has risen higher and higher.
But, before I go on, let me give you some background on Apple, for those of you who don’t follow stocks actively, or Apple specifically. Apple shares traded mostly flat from 1985 to 1999. In late 1999 and early 2000, Apple shares started rising, from about $26 in January 2000 to $200 in January 2008, gaining about 30% annually. Then shares dropped to $90 during the mortgage banking crisis, but rebounded stronger than ever; to the $515 level they’re at now. That’s an 80% gain every year over the past three years. And on January 25 (2012) Apple became the largest company by market capitalization as it pulled ahead of Exxon Mobil. And since then, Apple shares have surged even higher, giving Apple a market cap of about $480 billion: making it more valuable than Microsoft and Google combined, that’s pretty darn amazing!
Okay, so now that you know Apple sports the largest market cap, let’s get back to the Wall Street Journal articles I read. The Journal interviewed Howard Silverblatt, a Senior Index Analyst at Standard & Poors and a rapid-fire Brooklyn resident who is perhaps best known as a sort of high priest, historian and keeper of the S&P 500 stock index. Howard’s the guy who meticulously tracks and manages data on the index and has a wealth of information on his fingertips. When asked about Apple, Howard’s take was that Apple’s stock surge over the past few years has had a rather meaningful impact on the performance of the S&P 500 index as a whole, and more specifically on the technology sector within the S&P 500. According to Howard’s data:
Apple’s market cap accounts for 3.8% of the total market cap of all S&P 500 companies. That’s pretty amazing in itself, because if all the stocks in the S&P 500 were equally treated, Apple would only account for 0.2%: but Apple’s pulled far ahead to garner a 3.8% share
So while the S&P 500’s technology sector gained 9.8% from its October 2007 high, it would have been down 4.1% had Apple not been in the Index: so Apple has disproportionately skewed the Index, which can be misleading if investors take the Index’s performance at face value and assume it accurately depicts the average performance of all companies in the Index.
And while the entire S&P 500 index is down 13% from October 2007, it would have been down an additional 2% without Apple.
And, year to date over the past two months of 2012, while the S&P 500 has gained 8.2%, gains would only have been 7.7% without Apple.
Interestingly, according to Howard, Apple is still not the record breaker: that distinction is still held by IBM, which accounted for 6.3% of the S&P 500 index from 1981 to 1983. In the early 1980s, AT&T accounted for over 5%. IBM and AT&T are still in the Top 10 at #4 and #7 respectively, and IBM still holds 1.85% of the Index. And just fyi, the top 10 now are, in order, Apple, Exxon Mobil, Microsoft, IBM, Chevron, GE, AT&T, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble and Wells Fargo.
On the tech-heavy Nasdaq, Apple has an even higher 16.6% weighting – more than Google, Intel and Amazon combined. Now, the Nasdaq is heavily followed by tech investors so it’s important to strip out Apple and see how the rest are doing.
So when comparing corporate earnings and stock market trends, apples to apples, it may just make more sense to toss out Apple! Because it’s gargantuan size clouds the overall picture of earnings and the profit margins for other American corporations. So many stock analysts at major firms like Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Wells Fargo and UBS, are now looking at overall market trends sans Apple to get a clearer picture of how the rest of the economy is doing. And more so within the tech sector – as David Kostin of Goldman Sachs points out, the tech sector will likely show an earnings increase of 21% for the fourth quarter of 2011 with Apple, but only 5% without it: 21% with Apple versus 5% without it – that’s pretty stark! So Apple, as you can see, has significantly distorted the overall economic outlook, for the better. Apple is way ahead of other companies in terms of revenue and income performance; but many other companies are struggling to meet analyst expectations but that is not easily apparent in the aggregate because of Apple’s outsized positive influence.
And, cuing to my Dividend piece in an earlier show, Apple has a cash hoard of about $100 billion, and while it does not currently pay dividends, it’s becoming an investment fad because many are rushing to buy Apple thinking, and hoping, that it will start paying out dividends sometime soon. And you know how investment fads tend to work out! Think tech in the 90’s and real estate in 2005.
Apple’s done amazingly well and many expect that it will continue to do so, perhaps it is now a crowded trade, perhaps it’s too much in the limelight, no one can really say. If you already own Apple shares, I am really happy for you, and want to suggest that you also calculate your overall stock market gains without Apple to get a more realistic picture of how your portfolio has performed.
So how does all this matter to you? It matters because I want you to know that you cannot always take the Index as a whole at face value and assume it represents the average performance of all 500 companies in it. You should always watch for special circumstances that may have overly influenced performance, positively or negatively, and review performance without these outliers to get a clearer picture. Moreover, though we’re talking Indexes today, always look for the outlier effect in all your analyses. For example, with mutual fund performance; a manager’s great performance may be attributed to just a few well-timed and lucky picks.
Visit http://onthemoneyradio.org for weekly commentary and money advice that covers the entire financial spectrum which also airs on my weekly radio show, “On The Money!”
You may also want to visit http://blog.slpomeranz.com and SUBSCRIBE to my weekly commentary via Email and SUBSCRIBE to my weekly podcasts on iTunes!
Steven L. Pomeranz, CFP is a 29 year investment management veteran and host of “On The Money!” which airs on NPR station, WXEL in South Florida. He concentrates on serving high net-worth individuals and has been named one of the Top 100 Wealth Advisors 2007, by Worth magazine (October 2007 Issue), honoring America’s premier financial and wealth strategists.

Defense Suppliers Compete for a Piece of India’s Multibillion-Dollar Military Revamp

The Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) is in talks with India for a $5.8 billion military aircraft deal as the country triples its defense budget, leading defense suppliers to compete for a piece of the multibillion-dollar action.

India is negotiating with Boeing over the purchase of 10 C-17 Globemaster III aircraft, which would be the largest defense order from India for Boeing, the second-largest U.S. defense contractor. India's Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said in February the government would spend $33 billion on defense in the fiscal year starting April 1.

The Asian country's "defense procurement budget is quite huge," Laxman Kumar Behera, a research fellow at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses in New Delhi, told Bloomberg. "The U.S. arms industry has become quite interested in the Indian defense market."

Boeing expects to bid for as much as $31 billion of military contracts in the next 10 years as India looks to replace aging Russian-made equipment.

"We've had a long-standing relationship with Russia. But that's changing now," Sitanshu Kar, a spokesman for India's Ministry of Defence, told The Washington Post last year.

U.S. President Barack Obama is slated to visit India early next month and will discuss securing more defense deals that - with the Boeing contract - could total $10 billion to $12 billion.

Boeing is targeting international contracts to counteract a slowdown in U.S. defense spending, and India's relationship with American defense suppliers has tightened over the past couple years.

"There's been increasing cooperation between India and the United States from both the defense side and security side," said Mark Kronenberg, vice president of business development at Boeing. "More importantly, from the Boeing perspective, it's not just about increased presence on the military side - we've always had a strong commercial presence here - we think with Indian suppliers and partnerships we can be here for a long time to come."

A closer business relationship with India could also open the door to Boeing benefiting from India's growing air travel demand. Earlier this month the chief executive officer of Boeing rival Airbus SAS said he expects India's aircraft need to climb over the next couple decades.

"Our market forecast is usually quite conservative but we should expect at least an additional 1,000 in the next 20 years here in India," Airbus CEO Tom Enders told a media briefing. "India next to China is one of the big growth hubs for the aviation industry."

Other U.S. companies hoping to cash in on India's multibillion-dollar defense spending are General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE), defense contractor Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE: NOC) and Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT), the world's biggest arms supplier. The companies have been wooing India since last year when the country signaled a shift from Russian suppliers.

But U.S. companies will face competition from global counterparts, like Moscow-based United Aircraft Corp., France's Dassault Aviation SA (EPA: AM) and European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company (EADS).

Suppliers who usually rely on U.K. defense spending are turning to India for business as the U.K. coalition government is expected to announce defense-spending cuts on Tuesday. The British media has reported that the Royal Air Force may lose some aircraft orders and U.K. defense suppliers could see their operating margins fall in coming years. France and Germany will also be reviewing their budgets to trim expenses, putting more strain on suppliers.

While India's growing economy has attracts more foreign investment each year, some companies are frustrated with the strict government regulation that limits foreign involvement in sectors such as technology and energy. President Obama is expected to address concerns over market access during next month's meeting with Indian officials, especially in regards to a recently passed Indian law that exposes nuclear technology firms to accident liability.

"We will not be able to support nuclear programs in countries where the nuclear liability regime is not consistent with international norms," Michael Tetuan, a spokesman for GE, told The Wall Street Journal.

These kinds of laws turn some businesses off from dealing with India, which some say has used its attraction of having incredibly high economic growth to control business and investment negotiations.

"India's pretty cocky right now," Charles Maddox, a professor of corporate law at the Jindal Global Law School outside New Delhi, told The Journal. "They're playing a brinksmanship game with the United States."

But experts say the progress made with U.S.- India relations marks a dramatic improvement from prior decades and is sure to continue.

"In any relationship where you have growing commercial activity, you're going to have challenges and disagreements," Francisco Sanchez, U.S. undersecretary of commerce for international trade, said in a recent interview. "But the advancement over the last 20 years has been significant. We need to keep plugging away."